粕类日报：扰动因素增加，粕类继续偏强-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of meal products continues to be strong due to increasing disturbing factors. The overall supply of the international soybean market is relatively loose, and there is still pressure on prices. The domestic spot supply is tightened, and the market demand remains good. The meal product market is affected by multiple factors, and the upward space is expected to be limited [1][3][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures and Spot Basis: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed varying degrees of increase. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed, with the 15 - spread of soybean meal decreasing by 8, and the 15 - spread of rapeseed meal decreasing by 12 [3] - Cross - variety Futures Spreads and Spot Spreads: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal increased. The oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract remained unchanged [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The soybean carry - over inventory in the United States increased, and the overall supply and demand were relatively loose. The growth of new Brazilian soybeans was good, and the export volume was expected to increase. The old Brazilian soybeans had good export and crushing performance. The old Argentine soybeans had an increase in crushing and export, but the incremental space for export might be limited [4] - Domestic Market: The domestic spot supply was tightened, the oil mill operating rate increased but the quantity decreased, the提货 volume decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The market transaction increased significantly. The demand for rapeseed meal weakened, the oil mill operation basically stopped, the rapeseed supply was low, and the particle rapeseed meal inventory was still high [6] 3.3 Logic Analysis - Soybean Meal: The continuous rise of the US soybean market was mainly affected by the macro - environment. The supply pressure was expected to be postponed. The domestic soybean arrival volume would gradually decrease, and the upward space was limited. The near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, and it was difficult to rise further [7] - Rapeseed Meal: The rapeseed meal market was strong, mainly affected by the uncertainty of imports. After the supply of Canadian rapeseed increased, the pressure might gradually appear. The near - month spread of rapeseed meal was strong [7] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Single - side: It is expected that the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see appropriately and gradually short in the future [8] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [8] - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [8] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profits of Brazilian soybeans from March to July showed different degrees of change. The pressing profit of the 3 - month contract decreased by 0.58, and the 4 - month contract decreased by 24.57 [9]