鸣鸣很忙（1768.HK）：万店规模夯实龙头地位，效率革命重塑量贩业态

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][88]. Core Insights - The leisure food and beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid expansion, with a projected GMV growth from 2.9 trillion yuan to 3.7 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 5.5% [3][10]. - The company, "鸣鸣很忙," is positioned as the leading group in the mass retail sector, with revenue expected to exceed 39.3 billion yuan by 2024, showcasing strong growth potential [3][29]. - The company is exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the snack market is diversifying and showing significant growth [3][64]. Summary by Sections Industry Expansion - The leisure food and beverage sector is projected to grow significantly, with the down-market segment being a key driver, increasing from 1.7 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan (CAGR 6.5%) [3][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards specialized retail and e-commerce channels, with significant growth rates of 13.9% and 9.6% respectively [10][11]. Company Overview - "鸣鸣很忙" is set to achieve a revenue of 39.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 203% from 2022 to 2024 [29]. - The company has a robust store expansion strategy, with the number of stores expected to reach 19,517 by the third quarter of 2025 [41][44]. - The company employs a direct supply chain model, reducing costs by approximately 25% compared to traditional supermarket channels [56]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 63.06 billion yuan, 81.66 billion yuan, and 89.93 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 60.29%, 29.49%, and 10.13% respectively [3][88]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 2.52 billion yuan, 4.08 billion yuan, and 4.68 billion yuan for the same period, with significant growth rates of 176%, 62%, and 15% [3][88]. International Market Exploration - The Southeast Asian snack market is projected to reach 12.3 billion USD by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.57% from 2020 to 2024 [64]. - The company is focusing on markets like Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam, where local preferences are shifting towards health-oriented snacks and unique flavors [67][83].