玖龙纸业（02689）：盈利改善超预期，浆纸协同优势放大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (2689.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance forecasts and financial improvements [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a profit of 2.15-2.25 billion CNY for FY26H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 216.0% to 230.7%. After excluding perpetual capital securities, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.95-2.05 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 315.2% to 336.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 50.4% to 58.1% [1][2]. - The strong performance is attributed to increased sales volume, rising prices, and reduced costs leading to a significant increase in gross profit. The company anticipates achieving a sales volume of approximately 12 million tons in H2 2025, with a slight increase in average prices [2]. - The recovery in waste paper profitability and significant improvements in pulp and paper segments are noted, with expectations of a moderate recovery in profitability for the packaging paper series in H2 2025 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is reported at 63.241 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.767 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 135% [5]. - Projections for FY2026 to FY2028 indicate net profits of 3.824 billion CNY, 4.108 billion CNY, and 4.456 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.15X, 7.58X, and 6.99X [3][5]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 149.038 billion CNY in FY2025 to 173.060 billion CNY by FY2028, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6]. Capacity and Cost Management - As of June 2025, the company’s actual pulp and paper design capacity is 28.9 million tons, with significant contributions from various product lines. New capacity focused on pulp production is expected to enhance cost optimization [3]. - Capital expenditures are projected to decrease to 11 billion CNY in FY26 from 14.8 billion CNY in the previous year, alleviating mid-term depreciation and interest expense pressures [3]. Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profits for FY2026-2028 are 3.82 billion CNY, 4.11 billion CNY, and 4.46 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][5].