纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. In the short - term, the futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, showing a strong trend. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will still limit the price rebound space. Therefore, the short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish. It is necessary to continue to monitor changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash futures contract opened higher and strengthened during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed an opening horn, indicating a short - term oscillating and slightly bullish signal. The intraday pressure was near the previous secondary high, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume increased by 331,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 7,400 lots. The intraday high was 1225, the low was 1193, and the closing price was 1224, up 31 yuan/ton or 2.6% compared to the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: It was weakly stable. The enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and transactions were mainly based on low - price restocking [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 26 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash output was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% month - on - month from 86.42% last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 82,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30,090 tons or 16.31% [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and the consumption was mainly based on inventory and low - price rigid demand purchasing [2][3] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, the price of thermal coal oscillated downward, and the cost decreased slightly [3] Main Logic Summary - The high capacity utilization rate and the release of new production capacity lead to an increase in overall output. The resumption of a glass production line has slightly increased the rigid demand for soda ash. The short - term futures market is affected by anti - involution sentiment and energy price increases, but the high inventory pressure limits the price rebound space. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate and be slightly bullish [4]