PVC日报：震荡运行-20260129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to oscillate. The supply side has a slight decrease in the PVC operating rate, and the inventory pressure is still high. The demand side, affected by the real - estate adjustment, has low downstream initiative to stock up. Although there is a phenomenon of rush - export, the upward driving force of PVC itself is temporarily insufficient [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream is having pre - holiday promotions, with the downstream operating rate increasing by 0.95 percentage points, but the downstream's initiative to stock up is low. Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there is a rush - export phenomenon, and the PVC export orders have increased significantly. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level. The real - estate is in the adjustment stage, and the improvement still needs time [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract oscillated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 4,860 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,928 yuan/ton, and the final closing price was 4,895 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.37%. The position volume decreased by 23,946 lots to 1,015,893 lots [2] Basis - On January 29th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,685 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,895 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 210 yuan/ton, strengthening by 8 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by companies like Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of several companies were put into production or in trial production in 2025 [4] - Demand side: The real - estate is in the adjustment stage. In 2025 from January to December, the national real - estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all had significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 25th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% week - on - week, being near the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% week - on - week to 1.1775 million tons, 57.01% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6]