铁矿日报：商品市场情绪有所转暖，盘面仍显坚韧-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows an overall trend of gradually strengthening in a volatile manner. The supply pressure has eased due to reduced arrivals, the demand side has stable rigid demand, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the market has turned stronger again [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - 期货价格: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate strongly during the day, closing at 798.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan/ton or 1.98% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 308,000 lots, the open interest was 555,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.758 billion yuan. The futures price stopped falling near the predicted support level of 780 and may continue to fluctuate strongly in the near term, suggesting a low - buying strategy [1]. - 现货价格: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 7 to 797 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder rose 7 to 680 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 104.75 (+1.7) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices strengthened again [1]. - 基差价差端: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 832.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 19.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis, and the futures market should be treated with a view of fluctuating strength [1]. 基本面梳理 - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to arrivals. There were expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather [2]. - Demand: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory of berthed ships increased, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still increasing [2]. 宏观层面 - Domestic: This week, the domestic market continued the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The recovery rhythm of domestic demand was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro environment was mainly for bottom - support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - Overseas: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down and the savings rate was at a low level. Consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, and the internal driving force weakened. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. The market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased and asset pricing differentiation widened [4].