【冠通期货研究报告】烧碱日报：跟踪生产企业减产情况-20260129

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently in a pattern of high inventory and high supply. In the short - term, due to low - priced warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure, the price is weak, but there may be an oversold rebound, especially after April next year, and one should not be overly bearish. Key attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production reduction situation of caustic soda production enterprises [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Over the weekend, the price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market continued to decline, with some orders negotiated on a case - by - case basis, and the actual orders were reduced by 10 - 20. The procurement volume and price of downstream customers outside the province were low, providing little support to Shandong. The procurement price of alumina in the province was reduced by 15 to 600 over the weekend [1] - The caustic soda operating rate is 87.70% (+1.00%), and the weekly production of caustic soda is 86.30 tons (+1.00). In terms of demand, the operating rate of the main downstream alumina is 85.18% (-0.65%), the weekly production of alumina is 183.90 tons (-1.40), and the alumina port inventory is 16.80 (+3.20). The operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 56.54% (-2.22%); the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00); the operating rate of white cardboard is 74.37% (-6.30%); the operating rate of broad - leaf pulp is 89.70% (-1.30) [1] - Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 22 shows that China's caustic soda (converted to 100%) production in December was 4.217 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The cumulative production from January to December was 46.535 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting decided to pause and maintain the interest rate in the range of 3.5 - 3.75%. Milan and Waller support a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate is at the upper end of the neutral range, and policy has no pre - determined route but is data - driven. He also said that if tariff inflation peaks and then falls, it indicates that policy can be relaxed, and he advised successors to stay away from politics [2] - The decline in EIA gasoline inventories in the week ending January 23 was the largest since the week ending November 7, 2025, and it was the 11th consecutive week of increase. The domestic crude oil production in that week was the lowest since the week ending October 31, 2025 [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is still in a pattern of high inventory and high supply. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short - term decline is due to the market facing low - priced warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. The winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, while the traditional concentrated maintenance seasons for chlor - alkali enterprises are from March to May in spring and from September to October in autumn [3][4]