【冠通期货研究报告】油粕日报：美国45Z生物燃料政策加快落地-20260129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Near - term supply of soybean meal still has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is relatively small. Near - term soybean meal is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, while long - term contracts have strengthened slightly due to the accelerated implementation of the US biofuel policy. The US biofuel policy may weaken the surplus of US soybeans to some extent, but it cannot provide long - term upward momentum, and the pressure from the bumper harvest of South American soybeans remains high. It is recommended that those with large spot positions consider using price fluctuations to wash the basis, and view the futures market as a wide - range oscillation [2] - The approaching implementation of the US biofuel policy is still the biggest supporting factor for the oil market. In the context of the continuous strengthening of the oil sector, attention should also be paid to the arrival of Canadian rapeseed to ease the supply tension. The oil market will maintain an upward trend before the implementation of the US biofuel policy, but caution should be exercised regarding the upside potential, and the difference between the implementation of the US biofuel policy and expectations will determine the subsequent trend [2] Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 were 3.23 million tons, an 188% increase from 1.12 million tons in the same period last year, setting a record high for the same period. It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons. In 2025, Brazil's annual soybean exports were 108.73 million tons, an 11.8% increase from 97.29 million tons in 2024, also exceeding the previous historical peak of 101.3 million tons in 2023 [1] - Mysteel's agricultural product team estimates that in February 2026, the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills will be 77 ships, totaling about 5.005 million tons (with a ship weight of 65,000 tons this month), and this month's arrivals include some reserve rotation soybeans. In addition, based on shipping schedules and preliminary surveys, it is estimated that 4.8 million tons will arrive in March 2026 and 9.5 million tons in April [1] Oils - Informed sources revealed that Chinese crushers have ordered Canadian rapeseed to be shipped in the next few months, and importers have also ordered some rapeseed meal to be shipped from April to June. Traders said that after the tariff reduction, there is a profit of more than $40 per ton of Canadian rapeseed crushed. If the profit remains at this level, China will import more Canadian rapeseed [2] - Former US President Trump stated at a rally in Iowa that he supports legislation aimed at expanding the sales of E15 ethanol gasoline to win the support of key voter groups [2]