【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260129

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The cyclical bottom of soybean has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited. It is estimated that soybeans will continue to show a relatively strong and volatile trend [1]. - Corn is expected to have a wide - range volatile trend before the Spring Festival. If there is a large decline and adjustment, it can still be considered to buy on dips [1]. - The inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026 will decrease month - by - month, with significant declines in March and April, and a narrowing decline in May. It is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. - The de - capacity of pigs is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and it is difficult for the near - month and spot prices to show a continuous rise. The far - month needs to focus on the de - capacity in the past two months and the number of sows [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Soybean - In the Northeast production area, the spot market of low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain inventory at the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of high - quality and high - price. The price of 39% protein content commercial soybeans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. Multiple domestic soybean two - way bidding transactions by Sinograin have all been completed, indicating certain market demand support [1]. Corn - In the production area, after entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' attitude of holding prices has loosened slightly, and the phenomenon of threshing and selling grain by grass - roots farmers has increased, with a slight improvement in the supply of grass - roots corn. In terms of demand, there is a rigid demand for stockpiling before the Spring Festival in the feed and deep - processing industries, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some factories has increased. However, due to the relatively high price of dry grain, the inventory days of mainstream feed and deep - processing corn have increased to more than 30 days, and the factory's raw material inventory is relatively safe, with a cautious attitude in the market [1]. Egg - Calculated from the chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026 will show a monthly decreasing trend, with significant declines in March and April due to the combined effects of less previous replenishment and accelerated elimination of old chickens. In May, the inventory will continue to decline, but the decline will narrow, and the industry will gradually enter the supply - demand adjustment transition period. The market is in a state of hesitation, with a slight decline after a recent upward rush, and there is no obvious driving force. Since the current inventory margin has improved slightly compared with the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal reserve. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared with the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared with the end of the previous year. The pig de - capacity is still ongoing, and it is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to show a continuous rise [2][3].