【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡上行-20260129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 29, 2026, the number of overhauled plastic production units changed little, with the plastic operating rate remaining at around 89%, a neutral level. As of the week ending January 23, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 1.4 percentage points to 39.53% week-on-week. The overall downstream PE operating rate was still at a relatively low level compared to the same lunar period in previous years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was being depleted rapidly and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Cold weather increased the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns, and the escalating geopolitical situation in Iran led to a rise in crude oil prices. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. Recently, the plastic operating rate has slightly declined. The concentrated demand for plastic mulch has not yet started, and with the temperature dropping, terminal construction has slowed down, leading to reduced demand in the north. Some industries have entered the off - season, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. With low valuations, cold weather, and the Iran geopolitical situation, the sentiment in the chemical sector has improved, and plastics are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. However, the improvement in the plastics supply - demand pattern is limited, and the sustainability of the plastics rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 29, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, a neutral level. As of the week ending January 23, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 1.4 percentage points to 39.53% week - on - week. The overall downstream PE operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same lunar period in previous years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was being depleted rapidly and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Cold weather and the Iran geopolitical situation led to a rise in crude oil prices. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. Recently, the plastic operating rate has slightly declined. The concentrated demand for plastic mulch has not yet started, and with the temperature dropping, terminal construction has slowed down, leading to reduced demand in the north. Some industries have entered the off - season, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. With low valuations, cold weather, and the Iran geopolitical situation, the plastics market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will narrow [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract fluctuated upwards with reduced positions. The lowest price was 6956 yuan/ton, the highest was 7084 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 7049 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.42%. The open interest decreased by 18370 lots to 512824 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6820 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8190 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 29, the number of overhauled units changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, a neutral level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 23, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 1.4 percentage points to 39.53% week - on - week. The overall downstream PE operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same lunar period in previous years [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory increased by 2.5 tons week - on - week to 47.5 tons, 8.5 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory was being depleted rapidly and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $69/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $700/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $685/ton week - on - week [4]