【冠通期货研究报告】热卷日报：增仓上行-20260129

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of hot-rolled coils has slightly increased, and the demand is stable and resilient. The overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter storage is an important support for current demand. The social inventory of the total inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has been marginally improved. In summary, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support the price. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the strength of demand recovery. Currently, the macro-loose expectation supports the price. Today, it has re-stepped on the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, maintaining a generally bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Thursday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract was 434,547 lots, an increase from the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,277 yuan, and the high was 3,313 yuan. It increased in price with increased positions during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly crossed above the 5-day and 30-day moving averages in the short term, closing at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.79% [1] - Spot Price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -28 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] 3.2 Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills are still maintaining a high production pace before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4] - Demand: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons month-on-month to 3.1141 million tons. This week's apparent consumption slightly increased and is at a relatively good level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons week-on-week to 3.5558 million tons (social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, while steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in a destocking phase [4] - Policy: A new regulation on the export license management of steel products has been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. In 2026, in - depth rectification of involution - style competition was listed as a key task, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3.3 Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Expectation of the start of winter storage demand, rush - to - export market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - Bearish Factors: The resumption of production by steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]