螺纹日报：增仓上行-20260129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current resumption of production on the supply side of rebar continues, and the demand side is supported by pre - holiday winter stockpiling and shows resilience. The total inventory and social inventory are at a low level year - on - year, and the overall inventory pressure is controllable. The low inventory and resilient demand support the price. The output increased slightly this week, and the raw material end has strengthened again to support the price. Currently, the macro - expectation of the policy end is loose and positive, providing certain support. The moving average shows that it has re - stood on the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, showing a strong trend. Maintain a bullish view [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract increased its positions by 40,973 lots on Thursday, with trading volume increasing compared to the previous trading day, reaching 1,026,450 lots. From the perspective of the moving average, it broke through the short - term 5 - day moving average and the medium - term 30 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,159 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.12% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 93 yuan/ton to the spot price. The basis was still large, providing certain support. Winter stockpiling in the futures market had a certain cost - performance [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of January 29, the rebar output increased by 0.28 tons week - on - week to 1.9983 million tons, and increased by 221,600 tons year - on - year. The output rebounded slightly this week and increased significantly compared to the same period last year, reflecting that the steel mills' production resumption momentum accelerated, suppressing the price in the short term. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether the capacity recovery can be sustained [2] - Demand side: The apparent demand decreased week - on - week (in line with the seasonal law of construction site shutdown before the Spring Festival) but increased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the demand recovered year - on - year. As of the week of January 29, the apparent demand data was 1.764 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 91,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 978,500 tons. The overall demand increased significantly compared to last year, showing resilience. There was still support from winter stockpiling demand before the festival [2] - Inventory side: The total inventory increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, and the overall inventory was at a low level. As of the week of January 29, the total inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 234,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The social inventory was 3.264 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2388 million tons. The factory inventory was 1.4913 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 150 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 537,200 tons. The inventory pressure of manufacturers was significantly relieved year - on - year, and the social inventory pressure decreased year - on - year, providing support for the price [2][3] Macroeconomic situation - The central bank released a moderately loose signal, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that the expenditure intensity would only increase. However, due to the drag of real estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited macro - economically. The loose cycle provided certain support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory is at a low level in the past three years, the supply side has reduced production due to anti - involution, the production capacity is strictly controlled, the policy supports the demand, the demand will recover marginally after the Spring Festival, and the macro - expectation is loose [4] - Bearish factors: The inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival exceeds expectations, the inventory removal speed slows down, the blast furnace production resumption accelerates, the winter stockpiling demand is cautious, the real estate demand continues to decline, the export is restricted, and the economic recovery is weak [4]