玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强-20260129

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1] Core View - The glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price may run with a slight upward trend in oscillations. However, there is a possibility of continued downward pressure after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and the cold - repair situation of production lines [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: The glass main contract oscillated and was slightly bullish during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing trumpet shape, and the daily - line MA combination formed a golden cross, indicating a short - term slightly bullish signal. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average on the daily line, and the support was near the middle track of the Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 217,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,924 lots. The intraday high was 1088, the low was 1060, and the closing price was 1087, up 19 yuan/ton or 1.78% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: The overall price of the float glass market moved up, but the operations of enterprises in different regions varied. Some enterprises with low inventory raised prices to test the market, while some enterprises made prices negotiable to promote sales. However, downstream operations remained cautious [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 67 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, flat compared with the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% compared with the previous week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat compared with the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025). One glass production line was restarted and ignited this week, but no glass has been produced yet [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% compared with the previous week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually coming to an end [2] - Import and Export: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% compared with the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, up 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, up 3.9 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, down 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans for cold - repair of some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to further shrink. However, the real - estate development investment and the availability of funds in the real - estate industry have continued to decline year - on - year this month, and the completion and new construction are weak, so the real - estate demand has not improved. In general, the anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support to the market, leading to a rebound in the futures price. But the glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved [4]