国投期货农产品日报-20260129

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy (★★★): Soybean No.1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn - Neutral (★☆☆): Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Viewpoints - The macro - level re - inflation trading in commodities is spreading, which has an overflow effect on agricultural products [2][4] - Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors, and short - term trends vary from variety to variety Summary by Commodity Soybean No.1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans has increased in positions and risen strongly. The spot market is relatively stable, with tight supply and expected marginal improvement in demand [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Argentine drought and a weak US dollar have led to a bottom - oscillating and strengthening trend in US soybeans. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports, and the short - term trend is bottom - oscillating [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The overall performance of commodities is strong. The re - inflation trading in commodities has an overflow effect. The supply - demand of palm oil has improved, and the RIN price of US soybean oil has risen, which is beneficial for the strong performance of oils [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products generally rose today. There is support below due to pre - Spring Festival stocking demand. The short - term trend is oscillating and strengthening, but the rebound space is limited [6] Corn - The spot price of corn in Northeast China and North Ports is stable. The short - term trend of Dalian corn futures is oscillating [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures continued to decline, with strong supply and weak demand. There is a possibility of a second bottom - hitting in pig prices in the medium - to - long term [8] Eggs - The egg futures continued to be weak. The spot price is stable. There is a risk of a decline in the spot price after the festival. The futures price reflects the expected weakness, but there is a basis for the egg price to strengthen in the first half of 2026 [9]