农产品日报-20260129

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Outlook (★★★): Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - Slightly Positive Outlook (★☆☆): Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products futures is affected by multiple factors including macro - economic trends, supply - demand dynamics, and international relations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans has increased in positions and risen strongly. The re - inflation trading of commodities has a spill - over effect. The spot market is stable, with tight supply but improved marginal supply from policy auctions. Demand may improve marginally with the approaching festival [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Drought in Argentina and a weak US dollar have led to a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in US soybeans. China has completed a high proportion of soybean purchases for 2 - 3 month shipments. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports which may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - oscillating pattern is expected [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The overall strength of commodities and re - inflation trading have a spill - over effect. Due to multiple positive drivers, they are more favored. The oil - meal ratio has fallen back, and the palm oil has performed more strongly. High - frequency data shows an improvement in palm oil's supply - demand. Indonesian policies and the rise of RIN prices in the US are beneficial for the prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products have generally risen. Domestic coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed crushing, and there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking. Geopolitical factors and US biofuel policies are positive, but imports are expected to be more relaxed after March, limiting the short - term rebound space [6] Corn - Spot prices in Northeast China and North Ports are stable. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises have raised purchase prices. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have continued to decline, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, there is an acceleration of slaughter. There is a possibility of a second bottom - hitting in pig prices in the medium - to - long term [8] Eggs - The egg futures have continued to be weak. The spot price is stable, but there is a risk of a decline after the festival. The futures price reflects the expected weakening of the spot market, and the improved profit has increased the pressure on the 2026 far - month contracts. However, there is still a basis for egg prices to strengthen in the first half of 2026 [9]