2025年不动产ABS市场分析：发行持续活跃，资产类别多样化，多层次REITs市场稳步构建

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment rating for the real estate ABS market in 2025, highlighting a growth pattern in equity products and a steady performance in debt products [2]. Core Insights - The 2025 Chinese real estate ABS market is characterized by a stable growth in debt products and explosive growth in equity products, driven by the need to revitalize existing assets and reduce liabilities [2][8]. - The CMBS/CMBN and REITs continue to dominate the market, with a low issuance rate and an expanding asset matrix [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory policies in constructing a multi-layered REITs market, enhancing due diligence standards, and improving transparency [4][5][6][7]. Market Issuance Situation - In 2025, CMBS/CMBN and REITs accounted for 9.57% of the total ABS issuance, with a total issuance scale of 217.88 billion, reflecting a 9.06% decrease year-on-year [9][12]. - The number of CMBS/CMBN issuances increased by 43.55% to 89 units, while REITs saw a 21.05% decrease to 60 units [12][11]. - The report notes a structural shift where CMBS/CMBN is favored due to its simpler transaction structure and quicker approval process, aligning with the needs of local government financing [13]. Asset Type Breakdown - The primary asset types in 2025 included infrastructure, office properties, mixed assets, and commercial properties, which together accounted for 84.56% of the issuance [21]. - Infrastructure assets, due to their large scale and stable cash flow, continue to be a significant contributor to the issuance volume [21]. Issuance Rates and Spreads - The average issuance rate for CMBS/CMBN was 2.55%, while for REITs it was slightly lower at 2.46% [25]. - The average issuance spread for CMBS/CMBN was 1.10%, and for REITs, it was 1.01%, indicating a stable risk premium for quality real estate ABS [25]. Actual Financing Entities - Local state-owned enterprises were the primary financing entities, accounting for 67% of the issuance, driven by the need to revitalize existing assets [30]. - The report highlights a significant concentration of issuance in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, indicating regional disparities in market activity [28]. Credit Performance - The credit ratings of newly issued products remained highly concentrated at AAAsf, with 97% of the new issuances falling into this category [31]. - The report notes a marginal improvement in overall credit risk, with a decrease in default amounts by 18.3% compared to 2024 [34]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a continued focus on enhancing the multi-layered market system, with policies aimed at expanding asset boundaries and improving regulatory mechanisms [51]. - The growth of holding-type real estate ABS is expected to lead the market, serving as a key growth point and connecting private equity cultivation with public REITs [52]. - A shift from credit reliance to operational capability is expected, with an increasing participation of private enterprises and a more balanced issuer structure [53].