成本端原油支撑，今日化工延续偏强-20260129

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical industry continued to be strong today supported by crude oil at the cost - end, with the short - term performance affected by the Iran geopolitical situation [1][2] - The short - term fundamentals of crude oil are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose, but the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: US refinery operations declined, demand weakened, and EIA weekly inventories increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the medium - term ones are pessimistically loose. However, the short - term trading logic is shifted to the Iran geopolitical premium. The subsequent geopolitical situation may evolve in three ways, with the first two being the key points of concern [2][3][4] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose above the shock upper limit of 460 today, and the short - term structure turned to the long side. The short - term support below is at the 460 level. The strategy for the hourly cycle is to wait and see [4] (2) Styrene - Logic: Short - term supply disruptions and export rumors led to counter - seasonal inventory reduction, supporting short - term prices. However, after the recent significant expansion of profits, there is a pressure for the accelerated recovery and increased load of maintenance devices in the medium term. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment and whether there is a large reduction of positions at high levels [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and reached a new high today, with the short - term support at the 7530 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [6] (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: The speculation space of pure benzene is weaker than that of styrene. It is mainly driven by the passive upward space brought by the rising profit of styrene and the potential positive impact of the expected reduction of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene on domestic imports. The medium - term overseas demand is weak, and the domestic import pressure is the biggest negative factor. The short - term upward continuity depends on capital sentiment [10] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 5930 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [10] (4) Rubber - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the fundamentals of natural rubber. Its rise is mainly driven by the substitution effect after the increase of synthetic rubber prices and runs passively following synthetic rubber [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 16080 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [14] (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The domestic butadiene production is still at a high level in the same period. The domestic fundamentals have not changed much, but the cold wave in Europe and the United States has promoted the rise of overseas oil and gas prices and the expected short - term shutdown of overseas devices, leading to a contraction of overseas butadiene supply and an increase in international butadiene prices. Short - term cost - push and large capital inflows into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of synthetic rubber [19] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 12800 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [19] (6) PX - Logic: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the medium term before the new production capacity is put into operation in the third quarter, but the market has started trading in advance in December. Although there is a negative feedback logic of the decline in textile polyester in the short term, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with a wide - range interval of 7050 - 7500 at the hourly - level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22] (7) PTA - Logic: The short - term fundamentals are weak, with seasonal inventory increase due to weak demand in the off - season and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in the downstream. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the crude oil cost driven by geopolitical sentiment have promoted its short - term strength. Attention should be paid to when the Iran geopolitical impact ends [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the short - term upward structure at the hourly - level has come to an end. It fluctuated within the day today. The pressure at the 5370 level in the 15 - minute decline is temporarily effective. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [24] (8) PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [26] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6650 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [26] (9) Methanol - Logic: The port has started seasonal inventory reduction, but the fundamentals are weak due to the extremely high inventory level compared with the same period and the negative feedback of early parking and load reduction of MTO devices. However, the Iran geopolitical sentiment has heated up again recently, and the short - term trading of geopolitical sentiment on the disk and the large capital inflow into the chemical sector last week have promoted the short - term strength of methanol [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term decline and a short - term upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, testing the previous high but failing. The short - term support below is at the 2255 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [31] (10) PVC - Logic: The situation of high production, high inventory, and weak demand remains. It is affected by the chemical sector sentiment in the short term, but the upward pressure is still huge [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term shock structure. It fluctuated within the day today, and the short - term structure is unclear. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [33] (11) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The domestic fundamentals are still weak, with seasonal inventory increase pressure, high supply operation, and a negative feedback logic of polyester production reduction in demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the impact of the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term support at the 3825 level. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [35] (12) Plastic - Logic: The fundamentals of the domestic olefin industry chain are still weak, with the pressure of new production capacity release and the off - season of demand. However, the capital inflow into the chemical sector since the second half of last week and the cost support affected by the US cold wave have promoted its short - term strength. The continuity depends on when the capital reduces positions at high levels [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It decreased in volume and rose today, with the short - term support at the 6815 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [39] (13) Soda Ash - Logic: The fundamentals of soda ash still feature high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, with the surplus pattern continuing. Although the soda ash production has slightly decreased this week, it is still at the highest level in history compared with the same period and the previous period, and the pressure of new production capacity release is still high. The total demand is still weak. The inventory has slightly decreased due to the downstream replenishment demand before the festival, but the total inventory of 1.52 million tons is still at an extremely high level compared with the same period last year. Without unexpected policies, the premium of the far - month contracts of soda ash is expected to be gradually downward - repaired, and a short - selling idea is maintained for the 05 contract [40] - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level may have come to an end. It increased in volume and rose today, and the closing price stood above the short - term pressure of 1215 at the end of the session. The short - term decline may have ended. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see after stopping the loss of short positions [41][43] (14) Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand (weak non - aluminum demand and weak alumina demand expectation) in caustic soda remains. With sufficient comprehensive profits of chlor - alkali, chlor - alkali devices still maintain high - load operation, and the supply pressure is still huge. The downward drive continues, and it is difficult to see a reversal [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It fluctuated within the day today, with the short - term pressure at the 2000 level. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see, and do not buy at the bottom before the structure turns to the long side [44]