地方政府债供给及交易跟踪：地方债交易量持续收缩

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the rhythm of primary supply and the characteristics of secondary trading, to provide an overview of the local government bond market [10][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), local government bonds issued a total of 231.571 billion yuan, including 64.421 billion yuan in new special bonds and 117.848 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "replacing implicit debts" and "ordinary/project income" [10]. - As of January 23, 2026, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in January was about 254.272 billion yuan, accounting for 29.45% of the local bond issuance scale in that month [10]. - In terms of issuance pricing, the issuance interest rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds decreased by 2.2BP, 3.3BP, and 5.8BP respectively, with a relatively large weekly decline. The spread between new bonds and Treasury bonds of the same maturity has been significantly compressed, especially for the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties, which have reached the lowest level since late August last year [14]. - At the beginning of the year, Sichuan, Shandong, and Zhejiang were the main regions for local bond issuance. Shandong and Hubei had a proportion of local bonds with a maturity of over 10 years exceeding 80%, and the average issuance interest rates in both regions were above 2.3%. In particular, the issuance interest rate of local bonds in Hubei reached 2.44% [17]. 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Local government bonds have risen with shrinking trading volume for two consecutive weeks. Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes rose by 0.24% and 0.72% respectively. The over - 10 - year local bonds significantly outperformed high - grade credit bonds, while the 7 - 10 - year varieties slightly outperformed Treasury bonds of the same maturity. The latter's cumulative increase in the past four weeks was second only to high - grade credit bonds, indicating its stability [20]. - In terms of provinces, government bonds in Zhejiang, Shandong, etc. were actively traded, but the overall trading volume in the market decreased. The trading maturity was still lower than the average level in December, but the margin has rebounded. In terms of trading returns, the average returns of local government bonds in each region were mostly between 1.8% and 2.25%, while local bonds in Shandong and Liaoning had excess returns of 2.37% and 2.42% respectively [20].