——长江纺服周专题26W04：毛价周期再起，纺企盈利弹性如何演绎？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - Recent trends show a divergence in raw material prices within the textile and apparel industry, with notable increases in down and wool prices, while external cotton and polyester prices remain low [2][4]. - As a major wool consumer, China heavily relies on imports from Australia, with 2024 wool imports expected to account for 73% of global imports, 76% of which will come from Australia. Fluctuations in wool prices significantly impact domestic wool spinning enterprises' profitability and stock prices [4][18]. - Historical analysis indicates that wool price cycles typically last 4-6 years, driven by both demand recovery and supply contraction. Current conditions suggest a stable upward trend in wool prices due to tight supply and marginal demand improvement [5][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Wool price fluctuations are driven by both supply and demand factors. The Australian wool price has shown clear cyclical patterns from 2009 to 2024, with price increases often linked to demand recovery and supply constraints [5][29]. - The supply of Australian wool is expected to remain tight due to slow recovery in sheep populations and ongoing production declines, providing a solid support base for wool prices [6][46]. Price Elasticity and Profitability - Historical performance indicates that rising wool prices typically lead to improved profitability for wool spinning enterprises, which in turn positively affects stock prices. The report highlights the correlation between wool price increases and the profitability of companies like Xin'ao Co., which has shown varying degrees of elasticity in different business segments [7][59]. - The report emphasizes that the current environment of slow supply recovery and improving demand conditions supports the potential for enhanced profitability in upstream wool spinning enterprises, which could catalyze positive stock performance [7][59]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that wool prices will stabilize and trend upwards due to tight supply and recovering demand. The outdoor sports sector's growth and the increasing emphasis on sustainable materials are expected to further enhance wool's market penetration [6][52]. - The retail environment is showing signs of recovery, with domestic retail sales in the textile and apparel sector projected to maintain steady growth, which may lead to a gradual transition into a replenishment cycle [51][54].