贵金属：贵金属日报2026-01-30-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current credit of the US dollar has been severely damaged. After the "Greenland Island Seizure Incident", multiple pension funds in Europe and Canada announced partial or full sales of US Treasury bonds. The US dollar index has significantly declined. In terms of the Fed's monetary policy, Waller's dissenting vote aims to attract Trump's attention to increase the probability of being nominated as Fed Chair. From fiscal, foreign relations, or monetary policy perspectives, the weakening of the US dollar's credit is irreversible, driving the continuous strong performance of gold and silver prices. Strategically, it is recommended to maintain a long - term view. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1099 - 1450 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 24880 - 32000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 1.38%, reported at 1202.00 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver rose 2.10%, reported at 30358.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold reported 5453.00 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver reported 116.91 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield reported 4.24%, and the US dollar index reported 96.18 [2] - Last night, the prices of gold and silver fluctuated sharply, with a significant decline followed by a rebound, but overall they remained relatively strong. This morning, the CME raised the gold margin ratio from 5% to 6% [2] 3.2 Fed's Policy and Personnel - The Fed's interest - rate meeting decided to keep the interest rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range unchanged without a rate cut, with a cautious monetary - policy stance, in line with market expectations. However, Waller voted against and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which was more dovish than market expectations. After the meeting, Kalshi showed that the market's probability prediction of Waller being nominated as the new Fed Chair increased from 8% to 15%, which once again impacted the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [3] - Trump announced that he plans to announce the candidate to replace Fed Chair Powell next week and believes that the current interest rate should be lowered by 2 - 3 percentage points [2] 3.3 Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, on January 29, 2026, COMEX gold's trading volume increased by 403.70% compared to the previous day, and the position increased by 0.10%. LBMA gold's closing price rose 1.85%. SHFE gold's trading volume increased by 18.98%, and the position decreased by 3.86%. The precipitation funds of SHFE gold flowed in by 1.24%. The trading volume of AuT + D increased by 40.78%, and the position increased by 6.00% [5] - For silver, on January 29, 2026, COMEX silver's closing price decreased by 0.72%, and the position increased by 0.33%. LBMA silver's closing price rose 5.01%. SHFE silver's trading volume decreased by 29.95%, and the position decreased by 2.09%. The precipitation funds of SHFE silver flowed in by 3.51%. The trading volume of AgT + D increased by 12.96%, and the position decreased by 1.81% [5] 3.4 Price Structure and Spread - The report presents the near - and far - month price structures of COMEX gold, London gold - COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, Au(T + D) - Shanghai gold, and similar data for silver, as well as the five - day moving average and seasonal chart of the internal - external spreads of gold and silver [17][19][30][36][48] - On January 29, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX spread of gold was 40.63 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA spread was 45.98 yuan/gram. The SHFE - COMEX spread of silver was 6194.83 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA spread data was also provided [48]