Report Industry Investment Rating No mention in the report Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the start of the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space of sugar price may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic outlook, there is still room for cotton price to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the price of rapeseed meal rebounded. The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. From the weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [12] - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, the price of oils and fats rose significantly yesterday. In addition, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats has been decreasing month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving. Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17] - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand is about to meet expectations. The near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate mainly. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation due to the peak of production capacity, but after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [19] - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference support the limited short - term decline of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release lead to the early weakening of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals is revised down. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [22] Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 1.35% from the previous trading day. The quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,290 - 5,370 yuan/ton, up 40 - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output reached 15.909 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 22%. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 to 518 compared with the same period last year [2][3] - Strategy: Wait and see for now [4] Cotton - Market Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, flat compared with the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast of US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 166,000 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,100 tons [5][6][7] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal - Market Information: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,802 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,325 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.22% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,120 yuan/ton, flat compared with the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons. Among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 1.3 million tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.42 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast of US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast of Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast of Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, flat compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [10][11] - Strategy: The protein meal price may be bottoming out [12] Oils and Fats - Market Information: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,382 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,362 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,446 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan/ton or 1.24% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From January 1 to 20, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and maintained the current B40 plan. The January US soybean oil consumption forecast was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [14][16] - Strategy: Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17] Eggs - Market Information: Yesterday, the national egg price was generally stable with slight increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.01 yuan to 3.97 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained at 3.62 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion slowed down, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that the national egg price will remain stable in the short - term, and there may be narrow adjustments in a few areas [18] - Strategy: The near - month contracts may fluctuate mainly, and pay attention to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation, but pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [19] Pigs - Market Information: Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.23 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.2 yuan to 12.27 yuan/kg. The slaughtering enthusiasm of farmers remained high. In some areas, the slaughtering progress was lagging behind, so they accelerated the slaughtering. The demand side may have stocking sentiment due to the approaching weekend, but the increase may be lower than expected. The pig price may continue to decline, and the decline may narrow slightly [21] - Strategy: There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [22]
2026-01-30：五矿期货农产品早报-20260130
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-30 00:40