渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.30）-20260130

Macro and Strategy Research - The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations. This decision reflects a belief that the labor market may be stabilizing, despite low job additions, and current inflation remains slightly above the 2% target due to tariffs [2][3] - In the past five trading days (January 23 to January 29), major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.86% and the ChiNext Index falling by 0.73%. The average daily trading volume increased to 3.08 trillion yuan, up by 323.69 billion yuan compared to the previous five-day average [2][3] - The market is expected to continue its consolidation phase, with structural opportunities being the focus. Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) due to ongoing capital expansion in AI, and the non-ferrous metals sector supported by supply-demand gaps [3] Industry Research - The AI application landscape is evolving, highlighted by the overseas AI assistant Clawdbot gaining attention for its capabilities, including local deployment and interaction through popular messaging apps. This indicates a potential acceleration in the commercialization of AI applications [4][5] - Recent developments in the AI sector include Tencent's push into AI social networking with a new feature distributing 1 billion red envelopes during the Spring Festival, and the first successful deployment of a large model in space [5][6] - The domestic cloud computing sector is expected to see a rebound in capital expenditure as supply constraints ease, and the introduction of new AI models is anticipated to drive further technological advancements [6]