Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-30 00:57Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry's operating logic has fundamentally reversed, and the negative feedback loop of "credit contraction - construction collapse" in the ferrous metal industry is disintegrating. The black - series varieties are in the transition from the clearing of pessimistic expectations to the repair of credit premiums, and the market needs to re - evaluate downstream demand resilience and pricing structure changes [1]. - In 2026, the ferrous metal market will show the operating characteristics of "slowing decline in real estate, rising manufacturing demand, supply restrictions, and valuation repair but with limited height" [4]. - The end of the "Three Red Lines" policy and the successful debt extension of Vanke mark the shift of real estate policy from "rigid constraints" to "liquidity irrigation" and "credit reshaping", providing a buffer for the black industry chain [5]. - The demand for construction steel such as rebar will show "stock resilience" in 2026, and the risk premium in the black - series prices will decline, driving the basis to return and the valuation center of the futures market to rise [8]. - The internal differentiation trend of black - series varieties will be further strengthened. Rebar has some bottom support but limited upward driving force, while the demand for plates has clearer logic and medium - term support [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Black Metal Market Under Pressure with Structural Resilience - In 2026, the macro - economy is shifting from total expansion to structural optimization and kinetic energy switching. The demand logic of the ferrous metal industry is being reconstructed from "real - estate - dominated" to "driven by manufacturing and new infrastructure". The successful debt extension of Vanke provides a sample for judging the release rhythm of real - estate demand [4]. - The end of the "Three Red Lines" policy is a sign of the end of the "painful de - leveraging" stage in the real - estate industry, cutting off the risk chain of real - estate enterprise defaults spreading to the steel trading supply chain [5]. 2. Structured Evolution of Steel Demand in the Real - Estate "De - leveraging" Process - Real - estate enterprises have entered a new business model of "low debt, low growth, and high - quality". The demand for construction steel will show "stock resilience" in 2026, and the risk premium in black - series prices will decline [8]. 3. Re - balance of the Steel Industry Pattern: Shifting from Construction Steel to Manufacturing Steel - In the context of credit environment repair, the internal differentiation of black - series varieties will be further strengthened. Rebar has bottom support but limited upward driving force, while the demand for plates has clearer logic and medium - term support. The market should pay attention to the phased opportunities brought by credit repair [11].