市场关注点重回弱美元预期和供应扰动，基本金属加速走高

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus has returned to the weak US dollar expectation and supply disruptions, causing base metals to rise rapidly. In the short - to - medium term, with the return of the weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns, and the breakdown of the US dollar index, base metals are rising rapidly. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so their prices are expected to rise [1]. - The prices of copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and other metals are expected to show different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong; alumina prices are likely to fluctuate; aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and strong in the short - term and the price center may rise in the long - term [1][7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Copper - Viewpoint: The US dollar index has declined significantly, and copper prices are trending strongly. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1553 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.68%. On January 29, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 75 yuan/ton. The copper social inventory was 335,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,500 tons. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 US dollars/dry ton, with no month - on - month change. The US Southern Copper Corporation expects its copper production to decline to 91,140 tons in 2026. - Main Logic: Macroscopically, the recent weakening of the US dollar index has boosted the prices of commodities with strong monetary attributes. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the decline of copper concentrate spot TC continues. The 2026 copper mine long - term processing fee has reached a record low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. Although the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to be optimistic. - Outlook: Volatile and strong [7]. Alumina - Viewpoint: The expectation of production cuts is competing with the reality of oversupply, causing alumina prices to fluctuate. On January 29, 2026, the national weighted average price of alumina spot was 2,610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons. - Main Logic: Recently, the macro - sentiment has amplified the market fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. Inland high - cost production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the domestic market maintains a strong inventory accumulation trend. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the support for alumina prices. - Outlook: Volatile [7]. Aluminum - Viewpoint: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to trend strongly. On January 29, 2026, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24,822 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 578 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory was 253,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 142,705 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 124 tons. - Main Logic: Macroscopically, the statement of the interest - rate cut meeting was neutral, and China's new infrastructure and new energy policies continued to be implemented, with the expectation of continued loose liquidity. On the supply side, the domestic operating capacity and operating rate are at a high level, and there is a risk of power shortage overseas, and the progress of new project commissioning needs further observation. On the demand side, the high aluminum prices have suppressed demand to some extent, and the weekly inventory has accumulated. In general, in the short - term, the positive macro - expectation and the tight supply - demand expectation are expected to keep aluminum prices volatile and strong. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and strong. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and demand will maintain a resilient growth, and the aluminum price center is expected to rise [8][9][10]. Aluminum Alloy - Viewpoint: The market follows the price of aluminum ingots and has increased. - Main Logic: On the cost side, the tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short - term, providing strong cost support. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate has increased month - on - month, but the tax refund policy and tax burden transfer may still restrict supply in the medium - term. On the demand side, in the short - term, purchases are mainly for刚需 at high prices, and in the medium - term, the automobile trade - in policy will support the improvement of domestic demand. The weekly social inventory has accumulated. - Outlook: In the short - term, prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium - term, the cost - support logic will be strengthened, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight balance, with prices expected to be volatile and strong [11]. Zinc - Viewpoint: The rise in overseas natural gas prices has led to a volatile upward trend in zinc prices. On January 29, 2026, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc was 30 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc was - 10 yuan/ton. As of January 29, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 107,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. - Main Logic: Although the recently announced US economic data is positive, the expectation of a weak US dollar still exists. On the supply side, the decline rate of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, but the short - term supply of zinc ore is still tight, and smelter profits have declined. In the short - term, the previously locked - price zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and the supply pressure is not significant. On the demand side, domestic consumption has entered the off - season, and the demand expectation is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has room to decline, so zinc prices may continue to be volatile at a high level. In the long - term, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, and zinc prices may decline. - Outlook: In January, zinc ingot production has increased month - on - month, and downstream demand has entered the off - season. However, short - term domestic zinc ingot exports will continue, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory is difficult to accumulate significantly. Considering the overall strength of the non - ferrous metal sector, zinc prices are expected to be volatile [12][13]. Lead - Viewpoint: The social inventory of lead has accumulated, but the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is positive, causing lead prices to rise in a volatile manner. On January 29, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of 1 lead ingots was 16,750 - 16,850 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The domestic main market lead ingot social inventory was 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the latest Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 29,418 tons (unchanged). - Main Logic: On the spot side, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead and the futures warehouse receipts have remained stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has remained stable, and the profit of secondary lead smelting has remained stable. The previously shut - down secondary lead smelters in Anhui have resumed production, and the weekly lead ingot output has increased slightly. On the demand side, the orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly, and the orders for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. - Outlook: As primary and secondary lead smelters resume production, lead ingot output remains high. The demand for lead ingots has weakened marginally, and the lead ingot import window has opened. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [15]. Nickel - Viewpoint: The expected policy is competing with the weak reality, causing the nickel price to rise in the market. On January 29, 2026, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 46,854 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,032 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 286,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 132 tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,045 - 1,075 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, including tax), with no month - on - month change. - Main Logic: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output increased again month - on - month in December 2025, and the overall output of MIHP, ferronickel, and nickel matte in Indonesia remained at a high level in December, so the overall supply pressure of nickel still exists. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season. Although the stainless - steel production schedule has increased month - on - month due to profit repair, the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals remain in surplus. In terms of policy, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for next year's nickel cost and balance. - Outlook: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply - demand will remain loose in January, and the high LME inventory will suppress prices. However, due to the potential policy changes in Indonesia, nickel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [16]. Stainless Steel - Viewpoint: The firm price of nickel iron has led to an upward trend in the stainless - steel market. On January 29, 2026, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,519 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,925 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 stainless steel was at a discount of - 185 yuan/ton to the main stainless - steel contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,045 - 1,075 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, including tax), with no month - on - month change. - Main Logic: The price of nickel iron has recovered month - on - month, and the chromium price has remained stable, providing some support to the stainless - steel cost. The stainless - steel output decreased month - on - month in December 2025, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the terminal demand remains cautious. Currently, the social inventory has not shown obvious accumulation, but there may be some inventory pressure during the off - season, and the warehouse receipts remain at a low level. - Outlook: The production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the downstream demand is expected to be weak in the traditional off - season, which will suppress prices. However, considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the mine end, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [17][19]. Tin - Viewpoint: The supply shortage continues, and tin prices are trending strongly. On January 29, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons month - on - month to 7,060 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 163 tons month - on - month to 8,494 tons; the Shanghai tin open interest decreased by 3,821 lots month - on - month to 106,892 lots. The average spot price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 438,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. - Main Logic: The tin supply problem is the key factor affecting prices. The explosive approval issue in Wa State is expected to be resolved soon, which may ease the local supply shortage. Indonesia's tin production quota this year may be set at 60,000 tons, but short - term supply will still be restricted due to the RKAB approval. The landslide in the Walikale area of North Kivu Province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased supply concerns. In the future, the mine supply will continue to tighten, and the refined tin output will be difficult to increase. The recent increase in tin concentrate processing fees reflects the increasing financial pressure on some smelters. On the demand side, the US and Europe are in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal side is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and the consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. - Outlook: With high supply risks, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [20]. 2.行情监测 Copper No specific monitoring content provided. Alumina No specific monitoring content provided. Aluminum No specific monitoring content provided. Aluminum Alloy No specific monitoring content provided. Zinc No specific monitoring content provided. Lead No specific monitoring content provided. Nickel No specific monitoring content provided. Stainless Steel No specific monitoring content provided. Tin No specific monitoring content provided. 3.中信期货商品指数 (January 29, 2026) - Comprehensive Index: The commodity 20 index was 2,995.74, an increase of 2.61%; the industrial products index was 2,422.72, an increase of 1.88%; the PPI commodity index was 1,509.62, an increase of 2.38%. - Plate Index: The non - ferrous metal index on January 29, 2026 was 2,977.78, with a daily increase of 3.02%, a 5 - day increase of 5.29%, a 1 - month increase of 11.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.86% [146][147].