HUAXI Securities·2026-01-30 01:06Market Performance - On January 29, the A-share market saw a decline of 0.23%, with a trading volume of CNY 3.26 trillion, an increase of CNY 267.1 billion from the previous day[1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.51%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.00%[1] - Net inflow of southbound funds was HKD 4.374 billion, with Tencent and Xiaomi seeing inflows of HKD 800 million and HKD 643 million respectively[1] Sector Rotation - Rapid rotation in market styles was observed, with AI applications surging over 6% in the morning, while gold and oil stocks initially rose but quickly retreated[1] - The white wine index surged by 9.79% in the afternoon, with all constituent stocks except Kweichow Moutai hitting the daily limit[1] - The real estate sector also showed strength, indicating a potential shift in trading strategies[1] Investment Insights - The white wine market's rapid rise is attributed to a rebound expectation after a decline since mid-January, but the sustainability of this rebound is uncertain[2] - The technology sector's logic remains intact, with AI agents becoming more established, although the STAR 50 and STAR 200 indices showed reduced trading volumes[2] - The bond market is experiencing upward pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to 1.81%, a near one-month low[4] Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals continued to perform strongly, with gold and silver prices rising by 7.88% and 8.51% respectively[7] - Industrial metals also showed robust performance, with copper increasing by 6.71%[7] - Oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical risks, with crude oil and fuel rising by 3.69% and 4.00% respectively[7] Economic Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound state, with 1-year and 10-year government bond yields likely oscillating between 1.25%-1.30% and 1.80%-1.85%[6] - The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market may shift, with local government bond issuance plans increasing significantly from CNY 422.9 billion to CNY 769.7 billion[6]