五矿期货有色金属日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The supply of overseas copper mines is facing increased disruptions, and short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias due to support from the strategic resource demand and value, as well as the tight supply of copper mines. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [3][4]. - Aluminum: Although the domestic inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is accumulating, and high prices are suppressing downstream demand, the relatively low LME aluminum inventory and high US aluminum spot premiums provide strong support. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [6][7]. - Lead: The current industrial situation of lead is weak, but due to the impact of winter cooling on the transportation of waste batteries, the raw materials for secondary smelting are tightening, and it is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [9][10]. - Zinc: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but due to the sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices and the suspension of a zinc - mine development project in Bolivia, combined with the current low zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios, zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [11][12]. - Tin: In the short term, the capital game in the futures market determines the trend of tin prices. Against the background of a strong trend in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, tin prices are expected to be mainly strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [13][14]. - Nickel: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it is not continuously reflected in the explicit inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [15][16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, but due to the increase in profit - taking orders and large fluctuations in the commodity market, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Alumina: The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21][22]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Although the demand is relatively average, due to continuous supply - side disruptions and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to have strong support [28]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Copper - Market Information: Overseas copper - mine supply disruptions increased, LME copper 3M rose to a maximum of 14,527 dollars/ton and closed up 4.46% at 13,705 dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 106,900 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,150 tons to 176,075 tons, and the domestic electrolytic - copper social inventory decreased slightly. The spot discount in Shanghai was 170 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong was 235 yuan/ton. The spot import loss of SHFE copper narrowed to near the break - even point, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [3]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE copper today is 104,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 13,300 - 14,200 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum - Market Information: The aluminum price rose and then fell. LME aluminum closed down 0.92% at 3,233 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,935 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory increased slightly, and the aluminum - rod inventory increased by about 12,000 tons. The LME aluminum - ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 498,000 tons [6]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend. The reference range for the main contract of SHFE aluminum today is 24,600 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3,180 - 3,300 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - Market Information: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed up 1.13% at 17,208 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 20.5 dollars to 2,046 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead - ingot average price was 16,775 yuan/ton. The domestic lead - ingot social inventory increased by 3,500 tons to 38,400 tons on January 29th [9]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The industrial situation of lead is weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10]. Zinc - Market Information: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 1.42% at 25,979 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 48.5 dollars to 3,461.5 dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc - ingot average price was 25,290 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc - ingot social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 107,400 tons on January 29th [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are still in the process of following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase [12]. Tin - Market Information: On January 29th, the tin price fluctuated within a narrow range, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 446,130 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and the downstream inventory is generally low, with a concentrated release of rigid - demand restocking demand after the tin - price decline last week. The national main - market tin - ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons on January 23rd, an increase of 365 tons [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Tin prices are expected to be mainly strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 52,000 - 58,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - Market Information: On January 29th, the nickel price fluctuated, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, up 1.89%. The spot - market premium of each brand remained stable, and the cost of nickel ore and the price of nickel iron remained stable [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: SHFE nickel is expected to continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference price range for SHFE nickel is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 19,000 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC lithium - carbonate spot index closed at 164,501 yuan, down 2.56%. The lithium - carbonate futures rose and then fell, and the LC2605 contract closed at 164,820 yuan, down 0.88%. The SMM weekly inventory was 107,482 tons, down 1,414 tons [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 154,000 - 173,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On January 29th, the alumina index rose 0.21% to 2,814 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 261 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 304 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 78 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 161,500 tons [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,585 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 0.83%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets showed different trends, and the raw - material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased to 904,500 tons on January 23rd, a 2.91% increase [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The raw material supply is expected to remain tight, the stainless - steel spot market shows a tight pattern, and the price center is expected to continue to move up, but with large fluctuations. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,100 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated upward, and the main AD2603 contract closed up 0.27% at 23,850 yuan/ton. The weighted - contract position increased, and the volume remained high. The domestic mainstream - market inventory of aluminum - alloy ingots and the in - plant inventory increased [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term price is expected to have strong support [28].