山金期货黑色板块日报-20260130

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coils) and iron ore, along with relevant industry news [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The short - term price increase may be due to the central bank's cancellation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises. For steel products, the futures price is oscillating in a narrow range and may face a direction choice. For iron ore, the demand is affected by the off - season, and the supply is expected to decline due to seasonal factors [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and Demand: This week, the rebar production of 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major steel products increased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand decreased month - on - month [2] - Technical Analysis: The futures price is oscillating in a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton and may face a direction choice [2] - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions lightly, add positions at the lower edge of the oscillation range on price decline, and conduct medium - term trading. Avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - Data Summary: - Prices: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3157 yuan/ton, up 1.09% from the previous day and 1.06% from last week [2] - Basis and Spreads: The main basis and various futures spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed. For example, the main basis of rebar was 103 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day [2] - Production and Inventory: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47% from last week. The daily average molten iron output was 228.1 tons, up 0.04%. The national building material steel mill rebar production was 199.83 tons, up 0.14%. The five - major product social inventory was 890.73 tons, up 2.56% [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: The market is still in the off - season of consumption. The molten iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The steel apparent demand improvement may be due to the year - end rush for construction. The global iron ore shipment has declined, and the arrival volume has decreased while the port inventory has increased [3] - Technical Analysis: The futures price broke through the recent oscillation range and then fell back to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, which may provide some support [3] - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Avoid chasing up or selling down [3] - Data Summary: - Prices: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 798.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.98% from the previous day and 1.53% from last week [3] - Basis and Spreads: The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 14.5 yuan/dry ton, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day [3] - Shipment and Inventory: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1653.7 tons, up 14.83% from last week. The port inventory was 16766.53 tons, up 1.28% [3] 3.3 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.1%, down 0.2% month - on - month. The daily average raw coal output was 197.8 tons, down 1.6 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 549.6 tons, down 10.9 tons [5] - As of January 29, the rebar production was 199.83 tons, up 0.14% from last week; the total inventory was 475.53 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 23.43 tons; the rebar apparent demand was 176.40 tons, down 4.92% from last week [5] - A glass production line was restarted and ignited this week. As of January 29, the float glass industry operating rate increased 0.34% week - on - week to 71.96%. The national float glass production was 105.7 tons, flat week - on - week and down 3.38% year - on - year. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 5256.4 million heavy boxes, down 1.22% week - on - week, a new low in the past year [5][6]