能源化策略：美伊对峙局?略加强，原油?幅上涨带动油化?成本抬升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide a comprehensive industry - wide investment rating. However, for individual products, the general outlooks are mostly "震荡" (oscillating), which implies a neutral stance in the short - to - medium term for most energy and chemical products. 2. Core Viewpoints - The confrontation between the US and Iran has intensified, driving up Brent crude oil futures prices to $70 per barrel for the first time since September, and SC crude oil futures almost hit the daily limit. This has led to an increase in the cost of oil - based chemical products. Meanwhile, the chemical industry chain is entering the off - season, with开工率 (operating rates) of many downstream sectors such as textile and polyester declining [2]. - The overall view is that the situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran relationship, will support crude oil prices, and the chemical industry should be treated with an oscillating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Crude Oil - View: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical factors dominate the market rhythm. The situation in Iran is expected to increase supply concerns, and short - term support comes from a weak US dollar and geopolitical uncertainties. The outlook is oscillating as the fundamental supply is in surplus, but geopolitical premiums may fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Asphalt - View: Geopolitical premiums and rising spot prices have led to a significant increase in asphalt futures prices. Although the current price is in an over - valued range, the cost of crude oil supports the price. The outlook is oscillating, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline. The inventory accumulation pressure is high due to the off - season demand [9]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Geopolitical premiums support high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela and the substitution of fuel oil in the Middle East's power - generation sector are long - term negative factors. The outlook is oscillating, with short - term focus on geopolitical trends in the Middle East [9]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: It follows the upward trend of crude oil and oscillates strongly. Although it faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy, its current low valuation may lead it to follow the movement of crude oil. The outlook is oscillating [12]. 3.5 PX - View: The valuation of chemical products is relatively high, and the price increase is less than that of crude oil. The short - term supply and demand pattern is prone to inventory accumulation, but the market has expectations for future supply reduction due to maintenance. The outlook is oscillating and slightly strengthening, with short - term price support at around 7,250 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract [13]. 3.6 PTA - View: Supply has increased, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and profits have been compressed. The cost support from rising international oil prices remains, but the high valuation of the chemical industry limits the price increase. The outlook is oscillating and slightly strengthening, with support at around 5,200 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract [13]. 3.7 Pure Benzene - View: It oscillates due to the game between expectations and reality. Short - term high inventory may limit the price increase, but the fundamentals are expected to improve in the first quarter. The outlook is oscillating [15]. 3.8 Styrene - View: Recent price increases are due to capital behavior and export expectations. The short - term supply is tight, but seasonal inventory accumulation may lead to a profit reduction. The outlook is oscillating, and the reduction amplitude is expected to be limited [18]. 3.9 Ethylene Glycol - View: The driving force is general, and it is more affected by the commodity market atmosphere and device disturbances. The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to adjust within a range. The outlook is for short - term price consolidation within the range of [3800 - 4050] yuan/ton for the EG05 contract [19]. 3.10 Short - Fiber - View: Spot trading is weak, and the driving force is general. The cost has a certain supporting effect, but the demand is seasonally weak. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream market, and the processing fee will have stronger support at the lower end [22]. 3.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - View: It follows the cost fluctuations, and the support at the lower end of the profit is strengthening. The price is mainly anchored to the cost of upstream raw materials and has no obvious trend. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw material price, the processing fee will have stronger support at the lower end, and attention should be paid to the long - PR and short - TA position [24]. 3.12 Methanol - View: There is a long - short game in the coastal area, and it oscillates within a range. The domestic production area is reducing prices to clear inventory, while the consumer market is relatively strong. The coastal market is affected by the low - start of downstream MTO devices and high inventory. The outlook is oscillating, and the short - term trading may be mainly affected by overseas situations [26]. 3.13 Urea - View: The pre - holiday factory order collection is smooth, and the price is slightly strengthening. The supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural sector has a certain increase, while the industrial demand is cautious. The outlook is oscillating, and in the short - term, the price may fluctuate slightly and may be slightly strengthening [27]. 3.14 LLDPE - View: Supported by raw materials, it follows the upward trend. The increase in oil prices and natural gas prices has a positive impact, but the demand is in the off - season, and the follow - up of spot prices is limited. The outlook is short - term oscillation [32]. 3.15 PP - View: It follows the upward trend of oil prices in the short - term. The increase in oil prices and the repair of production profits are positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased recently. The outlook is short - term oscillation [33]. 3.16 PL - View: The inventory pressure is not large, and it oscillates. The PDH maintenance has a positive impact, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. The outlook is short - term oscillation [34]. 3.17 PVC - View: Supported by low valuation, it oscillates. Geopolitical factors and the "export at low prices" strategy provide certain support, but the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The outlook is oscillating, and the short - term "export at low prices" and low valuation support the market, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed [37]. 3.18 Caustic Soda - View: The electricity price has been slightly reduced, and the cost is decreasing. The high production and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation, and the spot price is under pressure. The outlook is oscillating and slightly weakening, and short positions should stop losses at low prices before the Spring Festival [39]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The report provides detailed inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in different contract spreads [41]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for multiple products, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [42]. - Inter - variety Spread: The report presents inter - variety spread data, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and between PTA and ethylene glycol, which helps in analyzing the relative price relationships between different products [43]. 4.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the sub - sections for each product are listed, the specific data and analysis content are not fully filled in the report. 5. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index all show an upward trend. For example, the commodity 20 index increased by + 2.61% to 2995.74, and the energy index rose by + 2.48% to 1195.87 on January 29, 2026 [283][284].