宁证期货今日早评-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to high domestic methanol production, declining downstream demand, and increasing port inventories [1]. - Gold rebounds after Trump's cabinet meeting, but market concerns about high prices are evident, so risk management is necessary and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored [1]. - Multiple factors drive the rise of coking coal and coke. The supply side is expected to be restricted, the demand side shows slight improvement, and coal is favored by capital rotation [3]. - Steel prices are expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. High costs support steel prices, but inventory accumulation and supply - demand pressure limit continuous price increases [4]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain volatile as supply is relatively loose and demand is stable [5]. - Short - term pig prices have limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of farmers and the elimination of sows [6]. - Palm oil futures prices are expected to remain oscillating strongly before major negative news emerges. Short - term long positions can be held, but chasing high prices is not advisable [6]. - Dalian soybean meal futures will rebound with support but the rebound is limited due to supply pressure [7]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain oscillating in the short term due to high supply, weak demand, and increasing inventories [8]. - Plastic prices are expected to be pressured and fluctuate strongly in the short term due to increasing production enterprise inventories and weak demand [9]. - Interest rate increases are negative for short - term government bonds. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - Silver is passively following gold, and excessive bullishness is not recommended in the short term. Risk management is necessary [10]. - Copper prices have high volatility due to short - term deviation from fundamentals, and attention should be paid to correction risks [11]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be bullish in the short term due to geopolitical risks [11]. - Aluminum prices have high short - term volatility and may correct, as the core logic has deviated from fundamentals [12]. - PTA prices mainly follow cost trends. Attention should be paid to the raw material market [12]. - Natural rubber prices suggest short - term long positions as the supply enters the contracting season and downstream resistance to high - priced raw materials exists [13]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - China's methanol port inventory is 147.21 million tons, up 1.46 million tons week - on - week; production enterprise inventory is 42.41 million tons, down 1.42 million tons week - on - week; pending orders are 26.57 million tons, up 2.74 million tons week - on - week. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 89.92%, down 1.18 percentage points week - on - week; downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.26%, down 1.3 percentage points week - on - week. The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2282 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [1]. Gold - The US federal government faces a partial "shutdown" crisis, and gold rebounds after Trump's cabinet meeting. However, market concerns about high prices are significant [1]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 89.1%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week. Daily raw coal production is 1.978 million tons, down 16,000 tons week - on - week; raw coal inventory is 5.496 million tons, down 109,000 tons week - on - week; daily clean coal production is 771,000 tons, up 1,000 tons week - on - week; clean coal inventory is 2.672 million tons, down 72,000 tons week - on - week [3]. Rebar - As of the week of January 29, rebar production is 1.9983 million tons, up 2,800 tons week - on - week; factory inventory is 1.4913 million tons, up 1,500 tons week - on - week; social inventory is 3.264 million tons, up 232,800 tons week - on - week; apparent demand is 1.764 million tons, down 91,200 tons week - on - week [4]. Iron Ore - From January 19 to January 25, the global iron ore shipment volume is 29.783 million tons, up 485,000 tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil is 23.943 million tons, up 1.476 million tons week - on - week. Australia's shipment volume is 18.374 million tons, up 1.493 million tons week - on - week, and the volume to China is 14.876 million tons, up 978,000 tons week - on - week. Brazil's shipment volume is 5.568 million tons, down 18,000 tons week - on - week [5]. Pig - On January 29, the national average wholesale price of pork is 18.60 yuan/kg, down 0.6% from the previous day; the price of eggs is 8.58 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from the previous day [6]. Palm Oil - India aims to reduce its dependence on palm oil imports and increase domestic production from 350,000 tons in 2020 to 2.3 million tons in 2029 [6]. Soybean Meal - From January 25 - 31, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to be 1.89245 million tons, up from 267,640 tons last week; soybean meal export volume is 531,710 tons, up from 302,410 tons last week; corn export volume is 589,650 tons, up from 413,180 tons last week [7]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,234 yuan/ton. Weekly production is 783,100 tons, up 1.48% week - on - week; total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.5442 million tons, up 1.51% week - on - week. The operating rate of float glass is 71.86%, up 0.24 percentage points week - on - week; the average price of float glass is 1,107 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 52.564 million weight boxes, down 1.22% week - on - week [8]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,894 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from the previous day. Weekly production is 328,800 tons, up 0.59% week - on - week; production enterprise inventory is 126,400 tons, up 9.63% week - on - week. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products in China is down 2.3% week - on - week, with the operating rate of agricultural film down 1.8% and that of PE packaging film down 2.9% [9]. Short - term Government Bonds - The weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank deposit market: the 1 - day variety is down 0.57 BP to 1.3613%; the 7 - day variety is up 4.28 BP to 1.5907%; the 14 - day variety is down 0.9 BP to 1.5898%; the 1 - month variety is up 0.4 BP to 1.5146% [9]. Silver - Trump's statements on Russia - Ukraine issues and Venezuela may affect silver prices. Silver passively follows gold, and risk management is necessary [10]. Copper - The threat of copper tariffs is reduced, and "invisible" inventories may return to the market. Copper prices have deviated from fundamentals and are highly volatile [11]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support crude oil prices, and short - term bullish trading is recommended [11]. Aluminum - A strike in a Chinese mining enterprise in Guinea may increase concerns about overseas bauxite supply. Aluminum prices have deviated from fundamentals and are volatile [12]. PTA - PTA social inventory is 3.0038 million tons, up 40,000 tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization rate is 75.83%; polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate drops to around 81.33% [12]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup glue is 53.5 Thai baht/kg. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 74.32%, up 0.48 percentage points week - on - week; that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.47%, down 0.06 percentage points week - on - week [13].