黑色建材日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is relatively positive, and the prices of black - series products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the macro - level is in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils, the marginal strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the overseas shipping volume is gradually entering the off - season, the supply pressure is marginally reduced, but the inventory structural problem is not solved. The short - term support for ore prices is relatively solid, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly. Attention should be paid to the steel mill restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall commodity bullish trend is expected to continue. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, the cost increase of manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term prices are expected to continue to show a wide - range shock trend. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high - volatility risk [15]. - For industrial silicon, there is an expectation of improved supply - demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large enterprises and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. - For glass, the market lacks substantial positive drivers, and it is expected to continue a narrow - range shock trend [24]. - For soda ash, the market supply - demand pattern is generally loose, and it is expected to continue a weak - running trend [26]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3157 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.088%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17,283 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7854 million lots, an increase of 40,974 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.853%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 187,668 tons, an increase of 8842 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.5471 million lots, an increase of 29,468 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The rebar production was basically flat month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the apparent demand shows a seasonal decline, and the inventory begins to accumulate, but the amplitude is relatively healthy. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a relatively high level, the production is moderately high, and the inventory continues to be depleted. The steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate within the bottom range [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 798.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.98% (+15.50). The open interest changed by - 9221 lots to 555,400 lots. The weighted open interest was 910,100 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 800 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.57 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.07% [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - In terms of supply, the overseas shipping volume of iron ore increased slightly in the latest period. The shipping volume from Australia increased month - on - month, and that from Brazil remained basically stable. Among the mainstream mines, the shipping volume of three Australian mines increased, while that of Vale decreased slightly. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries declined from the high level. The near - end arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the average daily hot - metal output was 227,980 tons, a slight month - on - month decline. There were still some blast furnaces in some areas for annual inspections, and the复产 of blast furnaces was mainly the regular复产 after the end of maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which put pressure on the absolute price. The inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to rise, and the steel mills continued to replenish stocks before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the steel mill restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 1.61% at 5926 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5780 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5970 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 44 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 1.85% at 5736 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 114 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The accident at Baogang Plate Factory last week led to the shutdown and maintenance of some production capacities and concerns about safety inspections, which inhibited the resumption of hot - metal production and dragged down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a certain rebound. In the future, the overall commodity market is expected to continue the bullish trend, but the black - series products currently lack capital interest. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, the cost increase of manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On January 29, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 2.69% at 1165.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1584.8 yuan/ton, down 1.9 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1395 yuan/ton, a premium of 230 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1284 yuan/ton, a premium of 119 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Jinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1209 yuan/ton, a premium of 44 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 2.32% at 1723.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1725.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 2.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a converted futures price of 1710.5 yuan/ton, a discount of 12.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The accident at Baogang Plate Factory last week led to the shutdown and maintenance of some production capacities and concerns about safety inspections, which inhibited the resumption of hot - metal production and dragged down the demand for furnace materials. After the market sentiment eased, there was a certain rebound. In the future, the overall commodity market is expected to continue the bullish trend, but the black - series products currently lack capital interest. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally loose. The short - term restocking is expected to be difficult to form a strong price driver, and the price is expected to continue to show a wide - range shock trend. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high - volatility risk [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon was 8925 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.88% (+165). The weighted contract open interest changed by - 9426 lots to 365,402 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 275 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of - 75 yuan/ton after conversion to the futures price [17]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon was 49335 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.89% (-1470). The weighted contract open interest changed by +1938 lots to 86,469 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 3165 yuan/ton [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - Industrial silicon: The production in Sichuan has basically stopped, the number of operating furnaces in Inner Mongolia has continued to decrease, and the number in Xinjiang has remained stable, with the weekly output continuing to decline. The demand from polysilicon and organic silicon is weak. If the production reduction plan of a large factory in Xinjiang is implemented, the supply is expected to decrease significantly, and the short - term balance sheet may turn to inventory depletion. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of large enterprises and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - Polysilicon: The silicon material market is in a stalemate. The downstream silicon wafer factories delay the purchase due to high prices, and the upstream maintains high prices but has few actual transactions. Some futures - cash traders sell at low prices, and the overall transaction price has declined. The terminal component price has increased, and the battery price has also increased. The supply of polysilicon is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [20][21]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1087 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.87% (+20). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises on January 30 was 52.564 million boxes, a decrease of 651,800 boxes (-1.22%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 20,937 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 4723 lots [23]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1224 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 2.17% (+26). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1184 yuan, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises on January 30 was 1.5442 million tons, an increase of 23,000 tons (1.22%), including 716,100 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 19,400 tons, and 828,100 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 3600 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 6474 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 28,808 lots [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - Glass: The market lacks substantial positive drivers. Affected by the lack of orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, weak stocking willingness, and seasonal factors, the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory in most areas accumulates slightly or remains stable. It is expected that the market will continue a narrow - range shock trend, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [24]. - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is generally loose. The supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the procurement is cautious. The market lacks substantial positive drivers, and the futures market is in a weak shock. It is expected that the market will continue a weak - running trend, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [26].