格林期货早盘提示：焦煤、焦炭-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows a strong expectation of demand improvement. Although the downstream demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival and the auction performance is average, the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. After the Spring Festival, there may be a certain restocking demand for coking coal, and the coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. The relaxation of the "Three Red Lines" policy for real - estate enterprises is beneficial to the real estate and upstream industries. The coking coal futures contract is expected to continue to rise at the opening today, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 1200 at the close [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1165.0 yuan/ton, up 2.69% from the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1723.0 yuan/ton, up 2.32% from the opening of the day session. In last night's session, the main coking coal contract closed at 1193.0 yuan/ton, up 2.40% from the close of the day session, and the main coke contract closed at 1756.5 yuan/ton, up 1.94% from the close of the day session [1] 3.2 Important News - On January 28, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the purchase price of coke for the first round. The price of wet - quenched coke was raised by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of dry - quenched coke was raised by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on January 30, 2026 [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 823.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.4%; the total inventory was 1278.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.43 million tons, an increase of 1.7%; the weekly apparent consumption was 801.74 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0% [1] - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.978 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 160,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 5.496 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09 million tons [1] - According to Mysteel's research on the Spring Festival shutdown of 95 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, most of them will shut down in February. Among them, the number of shut - down steel mills from February 1 to February 8 is the largest, reaching 44, accounting for 47.83%, close to half [1] 3.3 Market Logic - India has listed coking coal as a key strategic mineral. As the world's second - largest steel producer with rapid steel production expansion, India's domestic coking coal production cannot meet its demand and it relies on Australian imports. At the end of last December, the Indian government imposed anti - dumping duties on low - ash metallurgical coke imported from six countries including China, which further drives up the demand for domestic coking coal [1] - In the domestic market, the downstream demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival, and the auction performance is average. Although the first - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented today, there is unlikely to be a second - round increase before the Spring Festival. Macroscopically, many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, which is beneficial to the real - estate and upstream industries. During the Spring Festival, the supply side will reduce production, and coking enterprises need to maintain basic daily consumption. There may be a certain restocking demand for coking coal after the Spring Festival [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The main coking coal contract has risen strongly, with short - sellers significantly reducing their positions for two consecutive days, driving long - sellers to increase their positions and the price to rise last night. It is expected to continue to rise at the opening today, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 1200 at the close [1]