工业硅：上游减产，关注库存变动，多晶硅：会议情绪积极，构筑盘面底部支撑

Report Information - Report Date: January 30, 2026 [1] - Report Title: Industrial Silicon: Upstream Production Cuts, Focus on Inventory Changes; Polysilicon: Positive Conference Sentiment, Building Bottom Support for the Futures Market [1][2] - Analyst: Zhang Hang [2] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018008 [2] - Email: zhanghang2@gtht.com [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - The upstream of the industrial silicon industry has cut production, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [1] - The positive sentiment from the photovoltaic industry entrepreneur symposium provides bottom support for the polysilicon futures market [2][4] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: - Industrial silicon (Si2605): The closing price is 8,925 yuan/ton, with a volume of 300,232 lots and an open interest of 236,653 lots [2] - Polysilicon (PS2605): The closing price is 49,335 yuan/ton, with a volume of 15,626 lots and an open interest of 42,745 lots [2] - Basis and Spread: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts show different spreads and basis values, such as the industrial silicon near - month contract to the continuous - first spread being - 45 yuan/ton [2] - Prices and Profits: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, and the silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 2206.5 yuan/ton and - 5414 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feedstock is 52500 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.1 yuan/kg [2] - Organic silicon (DMC): The price is 13900 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is 1830 yuan/ton [2] - Aluminum alloy (ADC12): The price is 24550 yuan/ton, and the regenerative aluminum enterprise profit is - 310 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory is 55.4 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 76.3 million tons [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer inventory is 33.3 million tons [2] - Raw Material Costs: The costs of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes and other raw materials in different regions are provided, with most remaining stable [2] Macro and Industry News - On January 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a photovoltaic industry entrepreneur symposium, emphasizing "anti - involution" as the main contradiction in the photovoltaic industry's standard governance, and promoting the industry to return to a benign and rational development track [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral view [4]