中泰期货晨会纪要-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro and Financial Markets: In the stock market, the short - term style may shift to large - cap stocks; in the bond market, the short - term rebound may continue, and the central bank's monetary policy is turning more accommodative [10][11]. - Black Commodities: The black commodity market will generally remain volatile. Steel will fluctuate in the short term, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Lithium carbonate prices may rise after a short - term correction; industrial silicon will run with an upward limit due to pessimistic expectations; polysilicon will continue to fluctuate under strict supervision [21][22][23]. - Agricultural Products: Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level and strong consolidation phase; domestic sugar is under pressure; egg prices may decline after the peak of pre - festival stocking; apple prices may be strong; corn prices have large differences in the market; jujube prices will be weak and volatile; hog prices will see a fierce spot - market game [25][28][31][33][34][35][36]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical risks; fuel oil prices follow crude oil; plastics may have a limited rebound; rubber has support; synthetic rubber is expected to be strong; methanol's fundamentals are improving; caustic soda is bearish; asphalt prices follow crude oil; PVC has a risk of correction; the polyester industry chain is supported by cost; LPG is strong in the short term; pulp will fluctuate; logs are expected to be strong; urea is in a strong and volatile state [38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][49][50][51][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China and the UK have reached a series of positive outcomes, including the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership, the establishment of a financial working group, and a reduction in whisky import tariffs [6]. - SpaceX and xAI are in talks to merge for an IPO [6]. - China has released a work plan to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [6]. - There is a possibility of a new round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [6]. - China's Spring Festival cultural and tourism consumption month has started, with about 30,000 cultural and tourism consumption events and over 360 million yuan in consumption subsidies [7]. - The photovoltaic industry needs to "anti - involute" and return to rational development [7]. - The weighted average interest rate of new commercial personal housing loans in Q4 2025 was 3.06%, and Shanghai has extended the personal housing property tax pilot policy [7]. - The US trade deficit in November 2025 was $56.8 billion, a 95% increase from the previous month [7]. - South Africa is considering imposing a 50% tariff on imported vehicles from China and India [8]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to trade in a narrow range. The short - term style may shift to large - cap stocks due to the strong performance of liquor and real - estate stocks [10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment has improved, and the short - term rebound may continue. The central bank's MLF operation in January has increased, indicating a shift to a looser monetary policy [11]. Black Commodities Steel and Iron Ore - Macro policies meet market expectations, and there is little possibility of new policies. Steel production is less likely to be affected by policies. Steel inventories are increasing slightly, and the fundamentals are acceptable, but there is a risk of long - term accumulation in the off - season. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is relatively loose. The black market will generally remain volatile, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, domestic mine production will be restricted. After the Spring Festival, the supply - demand contradiction may improve, which may support spot prices [16]. Ferroalloys - There is still a small supply gap in ferrosilicon before the daily production in the main production areas increases significantly. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium term. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to hold short positions established at high levels and not to enter new positions unilaterally [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - The soda - ash and glass industry chain follows the market atmosphere. Soda - ash supply is at a high level, and new production capacity is expected to increase. The glass market has expectations of both cold repair and restart of production lines. It is recommended to wait and see for now [18][19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the growth of demand and supply - side disturbances, the price center of lithium carbonate may rise after a short - term correction, and it will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [21]. Industrial Silicon - The current situation has improved, and it will run strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited by pessimistic expectations. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound [22]. Polysilicon - Under strict regulatory restrictions, the market will continue to fluctuate. The "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry will continue, and the inventory reduction expectation in the first quarter is improving, but the high inventory still suppresses the upside [23]. Agricultural Products Cotton - There is short - term supply surplus, but the expected reduction of long - term supply and the contradiction between pre - festival replenishment and declining production may keep Zhengzhou cotton in a high - level and strong consolidation phase. It is recommended to trade in the short term [25]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is under pressure from both external and domestic supply. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - price range [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the pre - festival stocking of eggs may peak and then decline. The spot price may fall, and the futures contract for the post - festival off - season is under pressure, but the downside is also limited [31]. Apples - The apple market may run strongly. The pre - festival stocking is ongoing, and the high - quality apple prices will remain firm, while the prices of ordinary and low - quality apples may be under pressure [33]. Corn - The market has large differences. The short - term price is supported by pre - festival replenishment, but the upside is limited. It is necessary to focus on the concentrated selling in March and the opportunity to go long on dips in the far - month contracts [34]. Jujubes - The jujube market will maintain a weak and volatile state. The new - season jujubes have advantages in price and quality, and the sales in the off - season are okay, but the overall demand is expected to remain stable [35]. Hogs - The hog market has both increasing supply and demand, and the spot - market game is fierce. It is necessary to focus on the impact of weight reduction before the festival on the spot price. It is recommended to go short on the near - month contracts on rallies [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US pressure on Iran continues, and the supply surplus problem is still severe. Geopolitical risks are high, and there is a risk of short - term market fluctuations [38]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will follow crude oil prices. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the inventory is at a high level [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. Although the upstream is in heavy losses, which may support the price, the new production capacity will limit the rebound space, and there is a risk of correction [40]. Rubber - The pre - festival replenishment by downstream enterprises and the upcoming shutdown of overseas production areas support the price. It is recommended to close out the profitable positions of shorting out - of - the - money put options and pay attention to the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [41]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to be strong due to the tight supply of butadiene in the first half of the year. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [42]. Methanol - The fundamentals of methanol are improving in the long term, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short term and consider going long after the inventory at the port decreases smoothly [43][44]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda industry has high production and inventory. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises is poor, and there is a possibility of production reduction. It is recommended to take a bearish view [45]. Asphalt - The asphalt price will follow crude oil prices and may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of raw - material discounts and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase [46]. PVC - The previous rise of PVC was driven by the expectation of capacity reduction and the improvement of export fundamentals. However, the core supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved, and there is a risk of correction. It is necessary to pay attention to the export situation [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The near - end fundamentals of the polyester industry chain are weak due to the seasonal off - season, but the cost support limits the downside. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct positive spreads between 5 - and 9 - month contracts [49]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG is supported by the high import cost due to geopolitical issues. In the short term, it can run strongly, but in the long term, it is recommended to go short on rallies due to the expected decline in demand [50]. Pulp - The pulp market has a large intraday fluctuation. The spot - market trading sentiment has weakened, but the price is still supported by the stable fundamentals and the expected increase in the overseas price. It is recommended to go long on dips if the downstream purchasing intention improves [51]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are strong, and the spot price has stabilized. The product price has risen due to the increase in raw - material costs. The market is expected to maintain a supply - demand balance, and the price may fluctuate strongly [52]. Urea - The urea futures market is expected to be strong and volatile. The spot - market price has risen, and the futures price is affected by other commodities. It is necessary to focus on the improvement of spot - market liquidity [52].