格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for precious metals, including gold and silver, is volatile but shows a bullish trend. The continuous geopolitical and economic uncertainties have boosted the safe - haven demand, increasing the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset, and silver also has industrial demand support. The report suggests that long - position holders should continue to hold their positions while controlling risks [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 1.32% to $5410.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.98% to $115.78 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 1.38% to 1202 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 2.1% to 30358 yuan per kilogram [1] - On January 29, the COMEX gold futures once reached a record high of $5600 and then plunged, with a decline of nearly 9% from the daily high, and then the decline narrowed. COMEX silver reached a record high of $121 and then tumbled more than 12% before rebounding sharply [2] 3.2 Important Information - As of January 29, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 3.43 tons from the previous day to 1086.53 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 112.76 tons to 15523.36 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 13.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.6%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively in April is 25.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 72.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 2.2% [1] - CME raised the margin levels for gold, copper, and some aluminum futures, and also raised the margin ratio for some silver contracts starting from January 28 [1][2] - The World Gold Council reported that the total global gold demand reached a new high last year, and central banks around the world net - purchased 230 tons of gold in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 209,000, with an estimate of 205,000, and the previous value was revised from 200,000 to 210,000 [1] - US President Trump and Senate Democrats reached an agreement on Thursday to avoid a long - term shutdown of most federal government departments [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On January 28, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds target rate unchanged at its January meeting, in line with market expectations. After the dispute between the US and Europe over Greenland eased, the US surrounded Iran with heavy troops. The continuous geopolitical and economic uncertainties have boosted the safe - haven demand, increasing the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset, and silver also has industrial demand support [1] - The US President's criticism of the Fed threatening the central bank's independence and the deterioration of US - Europe relations have also intensified market risk - aversion sentiment. From January 19 to January 27, the US dollar index declined continuously, and the weakening of the US dollar also promoted the rise of the precious metals market. After the US Treasury Secretary supported the US dollar, the US dollar index rebounded on Wednesday. On January 29, the US dollar index closed down 0.19% at 96.16 [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The short - term volatility of precious metals has increased. Long - position holders should continue to hold their positions and pay attention to risk control [2]