铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is experiencing intensified fluctuations, and the A - share market is in an accelerated style rotation phase. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend remains positive under policy expectations and fundamental support [2][3]. - The precious metals market has seen sharp fluctuations, and the short - term risk has increased. The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end [4][5]. - Copper prices are driven by both hedging and speculation, with the valuation rising. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [6][7]. - Aluminum prices have shown large fluctuations at high levels due to strong profit - taking intentions. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. - Alumina prices are stabilizing and oscillating. Supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, and follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. - Cast aluminum is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price movement follows the cost and oscillates at high levels [11]. - Zinc prices are running strongly, but weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, with trading enthusiasm converging. The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations [16]. - Steel prices are oscillating and rebounding. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation before the holiday, and the overall trend is oscillating [17]. - Iron ore prices are following the sector's rise and rebounding. The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. - Coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and rebounding. Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate. US soybean export sales are expected to slow down, and downstream stocking demand is weakening [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Political uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the US are rising, leading to differentiated market risk preferences and increased volatility. The US Senate's appropriation bill is blocked, and there is a risk of a partial government shutdown. The US stock market is adjusted due to concerns about AI capital expenditure returns, and the 10Y US Treasury yield is at 4.23%. The US dollar index has recovered to 96.3. Gold is oscillating at a high level, crude oil has strengthened significantly, and LME copper has reached a record high [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market closed up on Thursday with a rotation of styles. Funds returned to the dividend sector, and technology stocks led the decline. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 3.26 trillion yuan, and the margin trading scale reached a new high of 2.74 trillion yuan. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend is positive [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Prices fluctuated sharply on Thursday. COMEX gold reached a record high in the morning and then tumbled at night, while COMEX silver also reached a record high and then gave up its gains. The flash crash at night was mainly due to profit - taking after the January delivery of COMEX ended, and then prices rose again after Trump's remarks. In 2025, global gold demand exceeded 5000 tons for the first time, and investment demand increased by 84% to 2175 tons. Central bank gold purchases slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons [4][5]. - The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end, and the short - term adjustment risk is increasing. The gold - silver ratio is expected to recover from a low level [5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, and LME copper reached a high of 14,500 and then fell back to 13,700. The domestic spot market had poor trading, and downstream buyers were hesitant. LME and COMEX inventories increased [6]. - The market is affected by geopolitical risks, and the volatility will further increase. The overall metal valuation will rise in the wave of AI and global electrification transformation. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the mine has proposed a new labor contract [6][7]. - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25,590 yuan/ton, up 2.92%, and LME aluminum closed at 3233.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.92%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased [8]. - The US government faces a partial shutdown risk, and Iran will hold a military exercise. The sharp fluctuations in precious metals and copper prices at night affected market sentiment, and profit - taking intentions were strong. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main futures contract of alumina closed at 2816 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. The national average spot price was 2648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The theoretical import window was open, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [10]. - After some alumina plants reduced production, the supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, but the overall supply still exceeds demand. Follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main futures contract of cast aluminum alloy closed at 23,850 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices also rose. The exchange inventory increased [11]. - Affected by weakening demand, the operating rate of cast aluminum continued to decline, and consumption continued to weaken. Cast aluminum itself has few contradictions, and its price movement follows the primary aluminum and oscillates at high levels [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc strengthened during the day and then fell back at night, reaching a new high of 26,985 yuan/ton. The spot market maintained a small discount. Social inventories increased slightly. Some mines had positive news about production [12]. - The market is affected by the uncertainty of the Iranian situation and the rise in overseas smelting costs. Although the overall situation is favorable, weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market saw active selling by holders, and the social inventory increased slightly [15]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom due to environmental regulations and production cuts, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market had different price premiums. The trading enthusiasm has converged, and the main contract position has not increased significantly [16]. - The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The medium - and long - term supply - demand situation is good. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [16]. 3.10 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 7.3 million tons. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Many electric arc furnace steel mills will stop production during the Spring Festival [17]. - Before the holiday, steel mill maintenance increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The demand is weak, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation. The overall trend is oscillating [17]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 86 million tons. Steel mill inventories increased due to pre - holiday restocking, but the daily consumption was at a low level. Overseas shipments increased slightly, and port inventories were at a high level [18]. - The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The price of Shanxi main coking coal decreased, and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke increased. Many coal mines will stop production during the Spring Festival, affecting a large amount of production capacity [19]. - Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. Although there is still some restocking expectation before the holiday, the overall driving force is limited. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed up 0.9%, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed up 1.84%. US soybean export sales decreased significantly in the week ending January 22. Argentina's soybean sales increased, and Brazil's soybean export forecast for January 25 - 31 is 189.245 million tons [20]. - US soybean export sales are expected to slow down as China shifts its purchases to the South American market. The expected high yield in Brazil limits the upside of the market. Downstream stocking demand is weakening before the Spring Festival. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [20][21]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 05 contract of palm oil closed up 1.15%. The US dollar index is weak, and there is a risk of supply interruption in Iran, leading to a significant rise in oil prices. China has completed the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed [22]. - The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable for the oil sector. Palm oil prices are approaching the pressure level. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22].