国新国证期货早报-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 29, 2026, the A - share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling 0.30% and 0.57% respectively. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 325.97 billion yuan, an increase of 267.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures products showed different trends on January 29, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, international market conditions, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On January 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.30%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3304.51, down 0.57%. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges reached 325.97 billion yuan, an increase of 267.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4753.87, up 35.88 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index was strong on January 29, closing at 1725.5, up 53.5. Supply is stable, and after the fourth round of price cuts, coking plants are in continuous loss. Steel mills' profitability is improving, and coal price increases have led coking plants to propose the first - round price increase, which steel mills are expected to accept by the end of the month. The average daily pig iron output last week was 228.1 tons, up 0.09 tons month - on - month. Downstream steel mills have weak sentiment for winter storage, with only 1 - 2 days of inventory space left [2][4] - Coking coal: The weighted index fluctuated widely on January 29, closing at 1172.8 yuan, up 43.6. The domestic coal mine production is at a high level at the end of January, Mongolian coal customs clearance has slightly decreased, and the import profit of seaborne coal is inverted. The total supply is relatively abundant. The first - stage winter storage of downstream enterprises has basically ended, coal mines have full orders, and the inventory transfer is smooth. The speculation sentiment has declined. The first - round price increase of coke has been postponed until the end of the month [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar fluctuated slightly and closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Due to the increased pre - holiday stocking demand of enterprises, the spot price was raised today. The rise in crude oil prices boosted short - covering, driving the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to rise on Thursday. The Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for February 2026 is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [4] Rubber - Rubber trees in northern Thailand have started to shed leaves, indicating the approaching end of the tapping season. Rubber production in Vietnam and Cote d'Ivoire has also begun to decline. The low - production period for rubber trees is usually from February to May. Market concerns about supply reduction in major producing countries have emerged. Affected by the sharp increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the rise in crude oil prices, the Shanghai rubber futures rose on Thursday and continued to rise at night. In December 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 5.8% year - on - year to 963,319 units, and the annual sales in 2025 increased slightly by 0.8% to about 10.6 million units, still far below the pre - pandemic level [4][5] Palm Oil - On January 29, palm oil futures continued to rise, with the main contract P2605 closing at 9362, up 0.99% from the previous trading day. Although there is a lack of driving factors in the news, the approaching Indian New Year consumption season and strong export data of Malaysian palm oil, along with the reduction of export tariffs, have strengthened the inventory - reduction logic [5] Soybean Meal - International market: On January 29, the closing price of the CBOT soybean main contract was 1072 cents per bushel, down 0.26%. The weak US dollar has enhanced the export competitiveness of US soybeans, and concerns about the Argentine weather have supported the market. However, the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the increasing harvesting pressure have limited the rise of US soybeans. Brazilian soybeans are in the early harvesting stage, and the expected output is estimated to reach 181 million tons. As of last Thursday, the harvesting completion rate was 4.9%, higher than 3.9% in the same period last year [5] - Domestic market: On January 29, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2783 yuan per ton, up 0.72%. Pre - holiday stocking demand has started, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased continuously, with the price remaining in a narrow - range shock. As of last weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 41,200 tons. After the Spring Festival, the supply of imported soybeans in China will remain loose, and the soybean meal futures price lacks a continuous upward - driving force [5] Live Pigs - On January 29, the main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11165 yuan per ton, down 0.93%. Recently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises has increased. The price - support sentiment in the market has weakened, and some production capacity originally scheduled for February may be slaughtered ahead of schedule. On the demand side, pre - holiday stocking has started, but the overall demand increase is general. In the medium - term, the supply pressure remains large [5] Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2603 contract soared and broke through the historical high, and the London copper also set a record. Driven by the resonance of macro - factors, supply - demand relationships, and capital, the short - term market sentiment is hot, but downstream buyers are more cautious. The closing price was about 109,110 yuan per ton, with a maximum of 110,970 yuan per ton and a minimum of 102,260 yuan per ton. The trading volume was 453,000 lots, and the open interest was 243,000 lots. The reasons for the rise include supply contraction (mine disturbances in Chile and Indonesia, low TC, smelting production cuts, high invoice points for recycled copper, and restricted transactions), strong demand (driven by energy transformation, AI computing power, and power grid investment, and supported by the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and pre - holiday restocking), macro - economic support (increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weak US dollar), and inventory structure issues (low LME deliverable inventory and a sharp increase in COMEX inventory) [5] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14,900 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 34 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises purchase as they use [5] Iron Ore - On January 29, the main iron ore 2605 contract rose by 1.78%, closing at 798.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, the domestic arrival volume has continued to decline, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. Currently, steel mills still have pre - holiday restocking demand, and the pig iron output has slightly increased. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6] Asphalt - On January 29, the main asphalt 2603 contract rose by 3.39%, closing at 3478 yuan. The refinery production plan for February has decreased slightly, the supply remains at a low level. Affected by the off - season, the shipment volume has decreased month - on - month, and the terminal market procurement is weak. However, the relatively strong crude oil price at the cost end has supported the asphalt price, which shows a volatile trend in the short term [6] Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 775 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 773, a maximum of 790.5, and a closing price of 785, with an increase of 119 lots in open interest. On January 29, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Future attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the impact of macro - economic expectations and market sentiment on prices [6] Steel - On January 29, rb2605 closed at 3157 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan per ton. Due to the intensifying geopolitical tensions, international futures prices of crude oil and metals have risen, driving up domestic commodity futures prices. The first - round price increase of coke will be implemented this Friday, which will continue to support steel prices. However, the restocking of steel mills' raw materials is coming to an end, the pre - holiday steel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the supply - demand pressure has slightly increased, so the steel price is not likely to rise continuously. In the short term, the steel price may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] Alumina - On January 29, ao2605 closed at 2816 yuan per ton. On the raw material side, the shipment volume of new mines in Guinea has increased, putting pressure on the price of imported ores. On the cost side, the decline in caustic soda prices has weakened the cost support for alumina. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum plants mainly execute long - term contracts and replenish inventory as needed. In the spot market, holders are eager to sell, and there is a phenomenon of chasing up and restocking in the downstream market. The inquiry atmosphere was strong in the morning, but in the afternoon, although the futures price continued to rise and holders raised the price, the market's rigid - demand restocking was basically saturated, and the trading atmosphere cooled down [6] Shanghai Aluminum - On January 29, al2603 closed at 25,590 yuan per ton. Aluminum plants are operating stably, the production capacity is running well, the aluminum - water ratio has declined slightly, the supply of aluminum ingots is abundant, and the social inventory has accumulated slightly, still remaining at a high level year - on - year. The demand pressure continues to increase, and downstream purchases have further shrunk, but the negative feedback transmission is insufficient. In different fields, there is some pressure in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial material sectors, and the demand for aluminum rods is weak. The processing fee remains weak, and some enterprises have stopped taking orders. The pre - holiday production has continued to decline. The market is paying close attention to geopolitical and metal - related dynamics and is in a wait - and - see mood [6]