银河期货每日早盘观察-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - Financial Derivatives: The stock index futures showed a strengthened style conversion, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50 indices performing strongly while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were weak. The market is expected to continue its upward - trending in an oscillatory manner. The treasury bond futures rose and then fell, continuing the oscillation pattern. The direct impact of the rumored new monetary policy tool on the bond market is considered neutral [21][22][23]. - Agriculture: For protein meal, the supply pressure persists, and the price on the disk is under pressure for adjustment. The international sugar price fluctuates greatly, while the domestic sugar price is slightly stronger. The external - market prices of the oil and fat sector have declined. The northern port's spot price of corn and corn starch has fallen, and the disk price is oscillating at a high level. The pig price is continuously declining due to the supply pressure. The peanut spot price is stable, and the disk price is oscillating at the bottom. The egg price has increased due to pre - festival stocking. The apple price is firm due to good pre - festival sales. The fundamentals of cotton and cotton yarn have changed little, and the cotton price is supported [26][28][35]. - Black Metals: The demand for steel is marginally weakening, and the steel price will continue to oscillate following the market sentiment. The fundamental influence on coking coal and coke is decreasing, while the capital disturbance is increasing. The terminal demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the ore price is oscillating. For ferroalloys, due to the sharp shock in the night - session commodities, some of the previous long positions should be closed for profit [56][57][61]. - Non - ferrous Metals: The sharp decline in the US stock market has triggered a huge shock in the gold and silver markets. The liquidity squeeze has led to the decline of platinum and palladium. The concern about AI has caused the copper price to quickly retrace. The alumina price is mainly oscillating. The electrolytic aluminum price is oscillating widely at a high level, and the risk of capital leaving the market should be vigilant. The market liquidity of cast aluminum alloy has tightened, and the alloy has corrected with the sector. The zinc price should pay attention to the change of market sentiment. The lead price is in an oscillatory range due to weak supply and demand. The nickel price is operating at a high level under regulatory cooling. The stainless - steel price is in the off - season, supported by cost. The industrial silicon price should pay attention to the production - cut actions of large manufacturers. The polysilicon price should focus on the spot transaction in the short term. The lithium carbonate price is operating at a high level before the Spring Festival under regulatory cooling and tight supply - demand. The sharp decline in the US stock market has caused a significant retracement of the tin price [66][72][76]. - Shipping: Geopolitical conflicts remain unresolved, and the spot freight rates of shipping companies continue to be adjusted downward [112][113]. - Energy and Chemicals: The crude oil price fluctuates greatly. The asphalt price is oscillating at a high level supported by cost. The fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased significantly last week, and geopolitical factors are favorable. The geopolitical disturbance of LPG has intensified. The geopolitical risk of natural gas has fermented, and the market volatility has increased again. The polyester sector, including PX and PTA, is strengthening due to geopolitical disturbance and cost support. The cost support for pure benzene and styrene is increasing, and they maintain an upward momentum. The ethylene glycol still has obvious inventory - accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival. The short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are following the cost side to be stronger. The cost support for propylene is increasing. The polyolefin has marginal production cuts, and long positions should be held. The caustic soda price is oscillating. The PVC is operating strongly. The soda ash and glass are in an oscillatory rebound pattern. The methanol price is strongly rising. The urea price is oscillating widely. The pulp price continues to oscillate widely. The high inventory of offset printing paper suppresses the increase of the paper price. The spot price of logs is moderately strong. The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber are strong due to the macro - environment. The butadiene rubber is also strong due to the macro - environment [116][118][123]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The stock index futures showed a strengthened style conversion. On Thursday, the Shanghai 50 index rose 1.65%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.76%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.97%, and the CSI 1000 index fell 0.8%. The main contracts of stock index futures also showed different trends, with IH2603 rising 1.95%, IF2603 rising 1%, IC2603 falling 1.16%, and IM2603 falling 0.53% [20][21]. - Investment Logic: The market was differentiated. The gold, non - ferrous, and oil and gas sectors performed strongly, while the technology stocks were weak. The market turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and the style conversion is expected to continue. The market is expected to maintain an upward - trending in an oscillatory manner [20][21]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: expect an oscillatory upward trend; arbitrage: conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 and short ETF; options: use a bull - spread strategy [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract rising 0.07%, the 10 - year main contract rising 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rising 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract almost flat. The yields of inter - bank treasury bonds of major tenors fluctuated, with the medium - and short - term bonds performing better than the long - term bonds [23]. - Investment Logic: The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity led to narrow fluctuations in the market's capital supply. The bond market sentiment was affected by the rumor of a new monetary policy tool and the performance of the stock and commodity markets. The direct impact of the new monetary policy tool on the bond market is considered neutral. The current capital market has relatively abundant liquidity, but if it deviates from the real - economy demand, the regulatory attitude may change [23][24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: close the long positions of the TL contract at high prices; arbitrage: narrow the spread between new and old ultra - long - term bonds; options: not mentioned [24]. Agriculture Protein Meal - External - market Situation: The CBOT soybean index fell 0.69% to 1083.5 cents per bushel, and the CBOT soybean meal index fell 1.05% to 300.9 US dollars per short ton [26]. - Related Information: The US soybean and soybean meal export sales decreased. Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to increase. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased slightly, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased [26][27]. - Logic Analysis: The overall supply - demand of US soybeans is relatively loose, and the center of gravity is expected to move downward. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but the short - term spot price may be supported. The medium - and long - term pressure on the disk price still exists [27]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: wait and see in the short term and sell short at high prices; arbitrage: expand the MRM spread; options: sell a strangle strategy [27]. Sugar - External - market Changes: The ICE US raw sugar main contract price fluctuated, falling 0.01 (- 0.07%) to 14.71 cents per pound. The London white sugar main contract fell 1.3 (- 0.31%) to 411.8 US dollars per ton [29]. - Important Information: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased slightly, and the EU plans to suspend duty - free sugar imports. The domestic main - producing areas' white sugar spot prices are basically stable, and the overall transaction is generally good [30][31]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the influence of Brazilian sugar is decreasing, and the northern hemisphere's sugar production is mostly in an increasing cycle. The Indian sugar production may increase more than expected, putting downward pressure on the international sugar price. However, due to the low price and the strong performance of commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, the sugar supply is under pressure, but the low price and the support from the international market may limit the decline. The sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in a large range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high according to the macro - sentiment; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell a put option [32]. Black Metals Steel - Important Information: Most independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills will stop production in February. The US initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected. This week, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the inventory accumulation accelerated. The construction steel demand declined, while the hot - rolled coil demand increased [56]. - Logic Analysis: The black - metal sector oscillated strongly at night. The steel price is affected by the market sentiment. The cost has support, but the winter demand decline and inventory accumulation limit the upward space of the steel price. It is expected to continue to oscillate following the macro - sentiment before the Spring Festival [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: oscillate following the market sentiment; arbitrage: short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; options: wait and see [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - Important Information: The coking coal online auction had a high non - trading rate, and the Mongolian coking coal market was strong, but the transaction was cold. The coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices are provided [58][59]. - Logic Analysis: The coking coal price increase on the disk is mainly driven by capital. Fundamentally, the supply is not tight, and the downstream winter - storage demand is weak. The spot price has cooled. The influence of fundamentals has decreased, and the capital and sentiment factors are more important. It is expected to be strong in the near future [59]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: be strong; hold long positions and consider buying on dips; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell an out - of - the - money put option [60]. Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Market Review: The London gold and silver prices fluctuated greatly. The US stock market decline triggered a shock in the precious - metal market. The US dollar index also fluctuated [67]. - Important Information: Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed chairman next week, and there are geopolitical events such as the cease - fire in Ukraine and the Iranian naval exercise [67][68]. - Logic Analysis: The decline in the US stock market led to market panic and a tightening of market liquidity. The adjustment of gold and silver is mainly due to technical factors and risk release. The overall macro - logic has not changed [68][69]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: conservative investors should take profits at high prices, while aggressive investors can hold long positions cautiously; arbitrage: go long on the external market and short on the domestic market for silver; options: take profits on the bull - call spread strategy for gold and silver [69][72]. Copper - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 2.03%, and the LME copper price rose 4.46%. The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased [76]. - Important Information: The concerns about AI investment returns have affected the copper price. The copper production in Zambia increased in 2025, while Southern Copper Corp. expects a decline in production in the next two years [76]. - Logic Analysis: The decline in the ore grade in Peru and the AI - related stock decline have affected the copper price. The LME inventory is expected to continue to increase, and the domestic market is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The copper price is expected to continue the upward trend, but the volatility will increase [77]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: aggressive investors can hold long positions above 105,000 - 106,000 yuan per ton; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [77][78]. Shipping Container Shipping - Spot Situation: The spot freight rate of the European line decreased. The 1/23 SCFI European line reported 1595 US dollars per TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83%; the 1/26 SCFIS European line reported 1859.31 points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9% [112]. - Important Information: There are geopolitical events such as Trump's executive order and the Iranian naval exercise [112]. - Logic Analysis: The demand for container shipping is declining, and the supply has a small - scale decrease. The traditional off - season is coming, and the rush - shipment is less than expected. The geopolitical situation is unstable, and the European line is difficult to resume large - scale shipping in the first half of the year [113]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: wait and see due to many short - term disturbances; arbitrage: take profits on most of the 6 - 10 calendar - spread long positions and hold a small part, and consider rolling operations on dips [115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.5% to 65.42 US dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.4% to 70.71 US dollars per barrel [117]. - Related Information: There are geopolitical events such as Trump's military order and the Iranian naval exercise. Venezuela reforms its petroleum law, and Saudi Aramco may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in March [117]. - Logic Analysis: The military - conflict risk has increased, bringing a premium to the crude oil price. It is not recommended to chase high prices. The international oil price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the Brent main contract should focus on the 67 - 69 US - dollar range [118]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: hold long positions and do not chase high prices; arbitrage: the calendar spread is strong; options: wait and see [118]. Asphalt - External - market Situation: The WTI2603 and Brent2604 contracts rose. The BU2603 and BU2604 contracts in the night session also rose [119]. - Important Information: The spot price of asphalt in different regions has different trends. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is supported by the crude oil price [120][121]. - Logic Analysis: The asphalt price follows the crude oil price to rise. The demand is weakening, but the low - inventory supply provides support. The raw - material price is rising [121]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: be strongly oscillating and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [122].