中辉有色观点-20260130

1. Report industry investment ratings - Gold: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Silver: Long - term holding, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term holding, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Low - level oscillation, ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, ★ [1] 2. Core views of the report - For precious metals, the sentiment is approaching the extreme, with high - level and large - amplitude fluctuations in gold. Long - term holding is recommended, but short - term risks should be watched out for. Institutions are optimistic about the long - term structural bull market of gold, and the long - term logic of going long on precious metals remains unchanged [1][2][3] - Copper has reached a new historical high, but there is short - term volatility. Long - term holding is recommended, and attention should be paid to the range of Shanghai copper and London copper [1][4][7] - Zinc has reached a new high since 2022. Short - term speculative factors dominate, and long positions should be held and gradually cashed out at high prices. Medium - and long - term callbacks should be bought on dips [1][8][10] - Aluminum price has risen and then fallen. Short - term profit - taking and waiting are recommended, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of social inventory of aluminum ingots [1][11][14] - Nickel price has rebounded and then fallen. Profit - taking and waiting are recommended, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes [1][15][18] - Lithium carbonate has high - level fluctuations, and long positions should be held cautiously, paying attention to the regulatory risks [1][19][21] 3. Summaries according to relevant catalogs Gold and silver - Market performance: Gold and silver prices continue to rise, but with large fluctuations. London spot gold has experienced large - amplitude intraday fluctuations, and the gold ETF and silver ETF inventories have decreased significantly [2] - Industry logic: The Iranian issue is deteriorating, Trump is pressuring for interest rate cuts, the US dollar has fallen significantly, and mainstream institutions are optimistic about the long - term bull market of gold. Silver is affected by the safe - haven attribute of gold in the short term, and the long - term gold - silver ratio will return to the mean [3] - Strategy recommendation: The short - term support for domestic gold is at 1190, and for domestic silver is at 27000. In 2026, the overall support for precious metals is still strong, and the long - term logic of going long remains unchanged. Short - term risks in the frenzy should be watched out for [3] Copper - Market performance: Copper prices have reached a new historical high, with large fluctuations in Shanghai copper. The trading volume and inventory of copper have changed [5] - Industry logic: The global copper mine shortage continues, the copper concentrate processing fee has reached a new low, the supply of refined copper has slowed down, and the demand for green copper is booming [6] - Strategy recommendation: Short - term long positions should be held, and stop - profit should be set. Do not blindly chase up or sell down. In the medium and long term, copper is still optimistic. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [105000, 115000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [13500, 14500] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - Market performance: Zinc has reached a new high since 2022, with large fluctuations in Shanghai zinc. The trading volume and inventory of zinc have changed [8] - Industry logic: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, the production of refined zinc has decreased, and the demand in emerging fields is expected to make up for part of the gap [9] - Strategy recommendation: Short - term long positions should be held and gradually cashed out at high prices. Do not blindly chase up, and watch out for the risk of a high - level decline. In the medium and long term, buy on dips during callbacks. The range for Shanghai zinc is [25800, 26800], and for London zinc is [3400, 3500] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - Market performance: Aluminum price has risen and then fallen, and alumina has rebounded and then fallen [11][12] - Industry logic: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Overseas supply is affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the domestic inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. The downstream demand is divided. The supply of alumina is abundant [13] - Strategy recommendation: Short - term profit - taking and waiting are recommended for Shanghai aluminum, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of social inventory of aluminum ingots. The operating range of the main contract is [24000 - 26500] [14] Nickel - Market performance: Nickel price has rebounded and then fallen, and stainless steel has also rebounded and then fallen [15][16] - Industry logic: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel ore production target, and the domestic pure nickel inventory has increased. The downstream stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [17] - Strategy recommendation: Profit - taking and waiting are recommended for nickel and stainless steel. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The operating range of the main nickel contract is [135000 - 153000] [18] Lithium carbonate - Market performance: The main contract LC2605 has opened low and moved low, maintaining a low - level shock throughout the day, with a decline of more than 3% [19] - Industry logic: The domestic lithium salt plant's production and operating rate have both declined, and the supply is expected to be tight. The downstream may start stocking before the Spring Festival, and the total inventory has been decreasing for two consecutive weeks [20] - Strategy recommendation: Long positions should be held cautiously at high levels, and attention should be paid to regulatory risks. The range is [16100 - 174000] [21]