国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold has reached a new high, while silver has fallen from its high. Copper prices are supported by a weak US dollar. Zinc inventories are being depleted. Rising domestic lead inventories are putting pressure on prices. Tin is trading in a range. Aluminum is experiencing high volatility at high levels, alumina is trending weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is rising in a volatile manner, and palladium is rising due to continuous inflows into ETFs. The situation in Indonesia regarding nickel remains uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia are intensifying, and the rise in ferronickel is supporting the price of stainless steel [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: Gold prices showed significant fluctuations, with some contracts experiencing sharp drops after approaching historical highs. Silver also reached a historical high before a sharp decline. Trading volumes and positions of gold and silver contracts showed different changes [4]. - Inventory and ETFs: Gold and silver inventories decreased, and the holdings of gold and silver ETFs also declined [4]. - Spreads and Exchange Rates: There were changes in the spreads between different gold and silver contracts, and the US dollar index declined slightly [4]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: Copper prices rose, with the Shanghai copper main contract and the London copper 3M electronic disk showing significant increases. Trading volumes and positions also increased [7]. - Inventory and Spreads: Copper inventories increased, and the LME copper premium and other spreads showed different changes [7]. - News: There were reports of potential US military action against Iran, and some copper mines in Chile had production disruptions [7][9]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: Zinc prices rose, with the Shanghai zinc main contract and the London zinc 3M electronic disk showing increases. Trading volumes and positions showed different changes [10]. - Inventory and Spreads: Zinc inventories decreased, and the LME zinc premium and other spreads showed different changes [10]. - News: There were reports of the new bond king's views on the Fed's interest rate policy and Sino - British cooperation [11]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: Lead prices showed a slight increase, with the Shanghai lead main contract rising and the London lead 3M electronic disk slightly falling. Trading volumes and positions showed different changes [14]. - Inventory and Spreads: Domestic lead inventories increased, and the LME lead premium and other spreads showed different changes [14]. - News: There were reports of potential US military action against Iran and AI investment plans of Alibaba [14]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: Tin prices showed a slight increase, with the Shanghai tin main contract rising and the London tin 3M electronic disk falling. Trading volumes and positions decreased [17]. - Inventory and Spreads: Tin inventories decreased, and the LME tin premium and other spreads showed different changes [17]. - News: There were reports of Trump's call for interest rate cuts and the cancellation of key mineral price floors in the US [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: Aluminum prices showed high volatility, alumina prices trended weakly, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Trading volumes and positions of different contracts showed different changes [20]. - Inventory and Spreads: Aluminum inventories showed different changes, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [20]. - News: There were reports of the US government's potential shutdown and Alibaba's increased investment in AI and cloud computing [21]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: Platinum and palladium prices showed different trends, with some contracts rising and some falling. Trading volumes and positions showed different changes [22]. - Inventory and ETFs: Platinum and palladium inventories showed different changes, and the holdings of platinum and palladium ETFs also changed [22]. - Spreads and Exchange Rates: There were changes in the spreads between different platinum and palladium contracts, and the US dollar index declined [22]. - News: There were reports of Trump's statements on the Fed chair and interest rates, and the World Gold Council's view on gold demand [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: Nickel and stainless steel prices showed different trends, with nickel prices rising and stainless steel prices showing a slight increase. Trading volumes and positions showed different changes [27]. - Industry Chain Data: There were changes in the prices of nickel - related products in the industry chain, such as high - nickel pig iron and nickel plates [27]. - News: The Indonesian government took a series of measures related to nickel, including suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses and adjusting the nickel ore production target [27][28][30].