螺纹钢：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of hot-rolled coil plates fluctuates repeatedly due to the bullish sentiment in the raw material end [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures | Variety | Yesterday's Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Yesterday's Trading Volume (Lots) | Yesterday's Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2605 | 3,157 | 35 | 1.12 | 1,026,450 | 1,785,380 | 40,974 | | HC2605 | 3,308 | 26 | 0.79 | 434,547 | 1,547,118 | 29,468 | [1] Spot Prices | Variety | Region | Yesterday's Price (Yuan/ton) | Day-before-yesterday Price (Yuan/ton) | Change (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Shanghai | 3260 | 3240 | 20 | | | Hangzhou | 3300 | 3280 | 20 | | | Beijing | 3150 | 3140 | 10 | | | Guangzhou | 3420 | 3420 | 0 | | Hot-rolled Coil Plate | Shanghai | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | | | Hangzhou | 3310 | 3300 | 10 | | | Tianjin | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | | | Guangzhou | 3280 | 3280 | 0 | | Tangshan Steel Billet | - | 2930 | 2930 | 0 | [1] Basis and Spreads | Variety | Yesterday | Day-before-yesterday | Change (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (RB2605) | 103 | 117 | -14 | | Basis (HC2605) | -28 | -10 | -18 | | RB2605 - RB2610 | -46 | -46 | 0 | | HC2605 - HC2610 | -22 | -21 | -1 | | HC2605 - RB2605 | 151 | 157 | -6 | | HC2610 - RB2610 | 127 | 132 | -5 | | Spot Coil-Rebar Spread | -78 | -67 | -11 | [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 29th, according to the weekly data from Steel Union, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 3.8 million tons, and the total production of the five major varieties increased by 3.58 million tons; rebar inventory increased by 23.43 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 21.43 million tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 9.12 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.45 million tons, and the total apparent demand decreased by 7.78 million tons [1][3] - In December, the output of medium and heavy plate mills of key statistical enterprises increased year-on-year, while the output of hot continuous rolling mills and cold continuous rolling mills decreased year-on-year. Among the main plate varieties, the output of shipbuilding plates, household appliance plates and engineering machinery steel plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates and wind power steel plates decreased significantly year-on-year. In terms of product prices, except for the medium and heavy wide steel strips, the prices of other products decreased. From January to December, the cumulative output of medium and heavy plate mills and cold continuous rolling mills increased year-on-year, while the cumulative output of hot continuous rolling mills remained flat year-on-year. Among the main plate varieties, the cumulative output of shipbuilding plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates decreased significantly year-on-year [3] - In mid-January 2026, key statistical steel enterprises produced 19.79 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.979 billion tons, a daily output decrease of 0.9% month-on-month; 17.94 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.794 billion tons, a daily output increase of 1.8% month-on-month; 18.77 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.877 billion tons, a daily output increase of 3.0% month-on-month. The steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises was 16.13 billion tons, an increase of 1.09 billion tons or 7.3% compared with the previous ten-day period; an increase of 1.99 billion tons or 14.1% compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 0.12 billion tons or 0.8% compared with the same ten-day period of the previous month; an increase of 3.2 billion tons or 24.7% compared with the same ten-day period of the previous year; an increase of 0.78 billion tons or 5.1% compared with the same ten-day period of the year before last [3] - In mid-January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.09 billion tons, a decrease of 0.02 billion tons or 0.3% month-on-month, with a slight decrease in inventory; a decrease of 0.12 billion tons or 1.7% compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 0.35 billion tons or 5.2% compared with the same period of the previous year [3] - BHP Billiton announced that its iron ore output in the first half of the year reached a record high. In the annual contract negotiation with China, the company has accepted a partial price cut for iron ore [3] - On January 19th, a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steelmaking operation department of Baotou Baogang Plate Mill exploded, damaging some workshops and equipment, which will affect the production of the plate mill production line and the surrounding affected production lines [3] - According to the customs statistics express data, in December 2025, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 21,000 tons or 4.2%; the average price was 1,810.3 US dollars per ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars per ton or 11.0%. From January to December, the cumulative import of steel was 6.059 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 756,000 tons or 11.1% [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - According to the customs statistics express data, in October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 45,000 tons or 8.2%; the average price was 1,593.0 US dollars per ton, a month-on-month decrease of 31.1 US dollars per ton or 1.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 680,000 tons or 11.9% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0; the trend intensity of hot-rolled coil plates is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [4]