国泰君安期货铂：震荡上行，铂：ETF持续流入，跟随上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Expected to fluctuate upwards [1] - Palladium: ETFs continue to see inflows, and prices are expected to rise following the trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of platinum and palladium, including price changes, trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, inventories, and price spreads. It also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Price: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 714.10 with a 2.78% increase; gold exchange platinum closed at 703.90 with a 4.99% increase; New York platinum main contract (previous day) was at 2636.90 with a -2.52% change; London spot platinum (previous day) was at 2639.70 with a -2.38% change. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 526.60 with a 4.48% increase; RMB spot palladium was at 503.00 with a 9.59% increase; New York palladium main contract (previous day) was at 2035.00 with a -2.89% change; London spot palladium (previous day) was at 2003.50 with a -2.72% change [1] - Trading Volume and Position: Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 20,179 kg, a decrease of 8,745 kg from the previous day, and the position was 35,781 kg, an increase of 571 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 63,330 kg, an increase of 9,746 kg, and the position was 101,226 kg, a decrease of 897 kg. Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 14,291 kg, an increase of 1,441 kg, and the position was 14,070 kg, an increase of 617 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 29,782 kg, and the position was 51,713 kg, a decrease of 1,950 kg [1] - ETF Holdings: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,324,168, a decrease of 11,651. Palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,220,510, an increase of 1,655 [1] - Inventory: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 655,182, a decrease of 10,006. NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 224,021, with no change [1] - Price Spread: The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was -10.20, an increase of 14.15 from the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract and 2610 contract was 8.05, an increase of 4.25. The cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 8.73, an increase of 0.22. The spread between Guangzhou platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 47.91, an increase of 36.26. The spread between RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was -23.60, an increase of 21.40. The spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract and 2610 contract was 2.00, an increase of 4.95. The cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.51, an increase of 0.26. The spread between Guangzhou palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 21, an increase of 37.27 [1] - Exchange Rate: The US dollar index was 96.16, a decrease of 0.91%. The US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) was 6.95, a decrease of 0.10%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.95, an increase of 0.03%. The US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.87, a decrease of 0.10% [1] Macro and Industry News - Trump will announce the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman next week and believes interest rates should be lowered by 2 - 3 percentage points. He also plans to take a bipartisan approach to avoid a government shutdown [4] - Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week cease - fire in some areas of Ukraine, and Zelensky said the cease - fire on energy facilities will start on the night of the 29th [4] - Iran issued a warning to merchant ships and will conduct live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Monday. Iranian officials expressed their stance on the current situation [4] - Saudi and Israeli officials visited the US to discuss potential military actions against Iran [4] - CME raised the margin levels for gold, copper, and some aluminum futures [4] - The US Senate failed to advance the appropriation bill, and the federal government faces another "shutdown" crisis. The appropriation for the Department of Homeland Security may be in a separate bill [4] - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks net - purchased 230 tons of gold in the fourth quarter, and the strong demand for gold in 2026 is expected to continue [4] Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: 0; Palladium trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]