生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260130

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The sugar market is in a state of low valuation and low drive, with sufficient supply. The short - term price increase is driven by pre - holiday stocking and differences in sugar production rates, but there is insufficient momentum for continued growth. It is not recommended to chase high prices for the SR2605 contract [2]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to the off - season of downstream products, but is supported by the rising cost of warehouse receipts. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is advisable to consider long - position allocation near 5200 [2][5]. - The double - offset paper market has limited upward space for futures prices. The cost - driven force is weakening, and short - term short - selling operations are recommended [6][8]. - The cotton market is expected to have a slow upward trend in the center of gravity. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [9]. - The apple market's major support logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on dips for the 2605 contract [10]. - For the jujube market, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and investors can consider buying protective put options for long positions. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread strategy of short 2605 and long 2609 [12]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [20]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - Soft Commodity Futures - Sugar 2605: Do not chase high prices. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330 [20]. - Pulp 2605: Allocate long positions with a light position. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5450 - 5500 [20]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Operate within a range. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [20]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [21]. - Spot Market Situation: The price of apples in the producing areas remained stable this week. The transaction volume increased during the peak pre - holiday stocking period, and the cold - storage packaging and shipping speeds increased. The sales situation in the sales areas was fair, and the mainstream price remained stable [21][23]. - Jujube Market: As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - holiday sales speed is expected to be slower than last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [24]. - Sugar Market: As of the week of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. India's domestic sugar sales quota for February 2026 is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. - Pulp Market: The Chinese pulp market continued to weaken due to the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties. The spot price of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. - Double - offset Paper Market: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week this Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased, and the start - up load rate was 57.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points, with the increase rate narrowing by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. - Cotton Market: In November 2025, the retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories in the United States were $27.493 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.54% and a month - on - month increase of 0.88%. The new - season planting area of U.S. cotton is expected to be about 10 million acres, about 9% higher than the latest USDA forecast [31]. Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review - Apple 2605: The closing price was 9642, with a daily increase of 110 and a daily increase rate of 1.15%. - Jujube 2605: The closing price was 8895, with a daily increase of 65 and a daily increase rate of 0.74%. - Sugar 2605: The closing price was 5257, with a daily increase of 70 and a daily increase rate of 1.35%. - Pulp 2605: The closing price was 5388, with a daily increase of 14 and a daily increase rate of 0.26%. - Cotton 2605: The closing price was 14910, with a daily decrease of 30 and a daily decrease rate of 0.20% [31]. - Spot Market Review - Apple: The spot price was 4.45 yuan per jin, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - Jujube: The spot price was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - Sugar: The spot price was 5320 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 590 yuan. - Pulp: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5400 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 1200 yuan. - Double - offset Paper: The spot price of Taiyang Tianyang in Tianjin was 4350 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan. - Cotton: The spot price was 16103 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1377 yuan [38]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10: The spread was 1112, a month - on - month decrease of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 1622. It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, and it is recommended to go long on dips. - Jujube 5 - 9: The spread was - 205, a month - on - month decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 175. It is recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9: The spread was - 12, a month - on - month decrease of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 145. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9: The spread was - 90, a month - on - month decrease of 20 and a year - on - year increase of 60. It is expected to be oscillating and weakening, and it is recommended to go short on highs [59]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts was 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts was 3313, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 703. - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts was 14119, a month - on - month increase of 404 and a year - on - year decrease of 10009. - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts was 141442, a month - on - month increase of 948 and a year - on - year decrease of 197286. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts was 10243, a month - on - month increase of 34 and a year - on - year increase of 3530 [84]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only some related figures are mentioned.