东吴证券晨会纪要2026-01-30-20260130

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the January FOMC meeting was to maintain the interest rate unchanged with a 10-2 vote, and Powell avoided political questions, which weakened market perceptions of the Fed's independence [1][15] - The market had already priced in a 30% probability of cumulative rate cuts by April, so the decision and guidance did not significantly impact the market [1][15] - Future focus includes the potential departure of Miran, government shutdown issues, and upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data, which could influence commodity price movements [1][15] Fixed Income - The report discusses the "tug-of-war" between the numerator and denominator in stock and bond pricing, indicating that the relationship between stocks and bonds is not stable and varies with economic conditions [2][16] - When the economy performs well, stock prices may rise due to improved corporate earnings, but rising interest rate expectations can suppress bond prices and increase stock discount rates, leading to uncertain stock index directions [2][16] - Different sectors respond differently to economic drivers, with dividend stocks being more sensitive to discount rates, while growth stocks depend on future earnings expectations [2][16] Industry Analysis - The machinery equipment industry is experiencing significant growth driven by rising metal prices, with the global mining machinery market expected to reach approximately $135 billion by 2024 [3][17] - The report highlights that the mining machinery market has a high gross profit margin in the aftermarket, which accounts for about 50% of revenue, and emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure driven by rising metal prices and declining ore grades [3][17] - Investment recommendations include companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][17] Company-Specific Insights - Mingyang Smart Energy (601615) expects a net profit of 800-1,000 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 131-189%, with Q4 showing a turnaround in profitability [18][19] - Daikin Heavy Industries (002487) anticipates a net profit of 1,050-1,200 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 122-153%, and is transitioning towards a full-service solution provider [20] - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is projected to achieve revenue of 94.27 billion HKD for FY26, with a net profit of 8.87 billion HKD, reflecting a growth of 50% over three years, supported by strategic store adjustments and product upgrades [21][22] - Xianhui Technology (688155) forecasts a net profit of 350 million yuan for 2025, driven by overseas expansion and solid-state battery equipment layout, with a significant increase in profitability expected [23] - Ding Sheng New Materials (603876) anticipates a net profit of 520-550 million yuan for 2025, with a notable increase in profitability driven by rising aluminum prices and improved production efficiency [24]