综合晨报-20260130

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Geopolitical situations are complex and volatile, affecting multiple commodity markets. For example, the tension between the US and Iran impacts oil, fuel oil, and related energy - related products. The situation in Ukraine also adds to the uncertainty in the market [1][2][21]. - Many commodity markets are influenced by a combination of supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For instance, in the metals market, prices are affected by inventory levels, production capacity, and short - term speculative sentiment [3][4][7]. - Some markets are expected to be in a state of shock or have limited upward/downward space due to various factors such as policy, seasonality, and demand - supply imbalances [11][12][13]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Prices fluctuated sharply last night. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and the EU's sanctions on Iran have increased market concerns. The cease - fire in energy infrastructure may bring some stability, but the market remains volatile [1]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Driven by rising geopolitical risks, they followed crude oil to rise significantly. The high - sulfur fuel oil shows strong performance due to tight spot supply, while the low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by cost and component factors. The market is expected to follow crude oil and maintain a strong shock, with the differentiation between high - and low - sulfur fundamentals continuing [21]. - Natural Gas: Not mentioned in the report. - Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Not mentioned in the report. - Coal: - Coke: The first round of price increase is expected to be implemented on Friday. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still have upward space in the short term [16]. - Coking Coal: The price continued to rise. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1618 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the inventory increased. Affected by market sentiment, the price may still rise in the short term [17]. Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight, they fluctuated violently, with an intraday amplitude of nearly 10%. Market focus is on geopolitical changes. Short - term market information is complex, and the risk of market fluctuations is high [2]. - Base Metals: - Copper: The price fluctuated violently on Thursday, with the maximum intraday increase of LME copper exceeding 10%. It is guided by funds and emotions. Pay attention to the domestic spot and discount range [3]. - Aluminum: Overnight, non - ferrous metals followed precious metals to fall. The spot premium and discount in some regions decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The market is dominated by short - term sentiment, and the volatility is high [4]. - Zinc: After the sharp fall of gold and silver at night, the long positions in the non - ferrous sector took profits, and the price of SHFE zinc closed with a long upper shadow. The short - term has an adjustment demand, and there is an opportunity for short - allocation after the high - level adjustment is sufficient [7]. - Lead: It is in a weak adjustment under over - supply. Benefiting from the strong bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, it rebounds, but the actual demand is weak, and the rebound space is limited [8]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: SHFE nickel oscillated at a high level. The spot price of stainless steel rose, but the downstream was cautious in purchasing, and the actual transaction was weak. The inventory of steel mills is still at a low level, and traders are willing to support the price [9]. - Tin: Compared with surrounding varieties, the price performance is restrained. Pay attention to the domestic spot quotation and track the social inventory. It is recommended to participate in the short - call option of the 2603 contract [10]. - Manganese Silicon: The price rebounded. The spot price of manganese ore decreased, and the port inventory may start to accumulate slowly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. - Silicon Iron: The price rebounded. The power cost in some areas decreased, but the price of semi - coke increased slightly. The demand has some resilience, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [19]. - Rare Earth Metals: Not mentioned in the report. Chemicals - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: The rise in oil prices strengthens the cost support. The inventory of propylene enterprises is low, but the downstream is more cautious. The supply and demand of polyethylene and polypropylene have different characteristics, and the new order follow - up is insufficient [27]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC showed a strong trend at night. The inventory in warehouses in East and South China increased, and the export signing slowed down. The cost support of calcium carbide became stronger. Caustic soda oscillated strongly. The price of liquid caustic soda decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine was strong. The industry is under high - pressure inventory, and the follow - up production reduction needs to be tracked [28]. - PX & PTA: Driven by the strong rise in oil prices, they rose again. In the first half of the year, PX can be over - allocated, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there are opportunities for long - position operations based on PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory increased, and the price encountered resistance at the 4000 mark. In the second quarter, there are expectations of centralized maintenance and demand recovery, but the long - term is still under pressure [30]. - Urea: Before the Spring Festival, the industrial downstream demand is expected to decline, and the large - scale spring ploughing fertilizer demand has not started. The supply pressure remains, and the market continues to oscillate strongly within the range [23]. - Methanol: Affected by geopolitical risks, it rose significantly at night. The overseas device operation rate is low, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly. Although there are some negative factors, the short - term market is expected to run strongly [24]. - Pure Benzene: The futures price followed the oil price and ran strongly. The inventory in Jiangsu ports increased slightly. The demand increased due to the improvement of downstream profits and the increase in device operation rates [25]. - Styrene: Crude oil and pure benzene support the cost. The domestic supply has declined, and the downstream demand has decreased steadily. There is short - term price pressure [26]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: Driven by the drought in Argentina and the weakening of the US dollar, US soybeans continue to oscillate strongly at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, which may impact the domestic market [35]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Affected by the spread of re - inflation trading in commodities, they are boosted. The short - term price volatility risk should be noted. The supply - demand of palm oil has improved marginally, and the policies of Indonesia and the US are beneficial to the price [36]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The zero - pressing of rapeseed in domestic coastal oil mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. Although affected by geopolitics and policies, the import is expected to be looser after March, and the short - term upward space is limited [37]. - Corn: The spot price in Northeast China and North Ports is stable, and the price of some Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly. The short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - Eggs: The futures price is weak, reflecting the expected weakening of the spot market. Although the inventory of laying hens will decline in the first half of 2026, the short - term price may fall after the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the trading rhythm [41]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The domestic cotton supply and sales are booming, but the downstream order demand is average. Pay attention to the pressure around 15,000 yuan and the change in imports [42]. - Sugar: The international sugar market has different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic market focuses on the expected difference in production. Although the current production in Guangxi is slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 crushing season, and the short - term price faces pressure [43]. - Apple: The futures price oscillates. The Spring Festival stocking is at a peak, but the quality of apples is poor and the purchase price is high, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The market focuses on demand [44]. - Wood: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease, the demand has increased year - on - year, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Paper Pulp: The futures price rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are still weak due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has continued to accumulate [46]. Livestock - Hogs: The futures and spot prices are falling. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the price may hit a second bottom in the first half of next year [40]. Financial Products - Stock Index: The three major A - share indexes rose and fell differently yesterday. The futures indexes also showed different trends. The A - share market is expected to change from a unilateral rapid rise to an oscillating upward trend. Pay attention to geopolitical situations and economic policies [47]. - Treasury Bonds: On January 29, 2026, treasury bond futures rose slightly. The market sentiment of going long continues, but the trading is divided. The short - term is expected to continue the box - type shock. Pay attention to the opportunities of steepening and flattening the yield curve [48].