格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260130

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, and continued to rise in the night session. The supply and inventory of the five major steel products increased this week, while demand decreased. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream steel demand has gradually shrunk, and the market speculation sentiment is poor. The winter storage policy has been gradually implemented, but merchants generally lack confidence in winter storage. The market expects the steel price to be stable after the festival [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher and continued to rise in the night session [1] Important Information - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 35,800 tons or 0.4%; the total inventory was 12.7851 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 214,300 tons or 1.7%; the weekly apparent consumption was 8.0174 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [1] - In 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output was 40.8681 million tons, an increase of 1.427 million tons or 3.62% year-on-year [1] - According to the latest production schedule report of the three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in February 2026 was 23.79 million units, a decrease of 22.1% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [1] - Mysteel surveyed the Spring Festival shutdown situation of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills. Most of them will shut down in February, with the most (44, accounting for 47.83%) shutting down from February 1st to February 8th. The remaining 9 steel mills will shut down one after another after February 8th, and the latest one will shut down on February 15th [1] Market Logic - On Thursday, steel spot prices rose, and commodities generally increased. This week, the output and inventory of the five major steel products increased, while demand decreased. Rebar output and inventory both increased, and rebar continued to accumulate inventory. Hot-rolled coil output increased while inventory decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream steel demand has gradually shrunk, and the market speculation sentiment is poor. The winter storage policy has been gradually implemented, but merchants generally lack confidence in winter storage. Most downstream infrastructure and housing construction enterprises lack the willingness to replenish inventory before the festival. Nearly 70% of enterprises will stop work 5 - 10 days before the festival, and nearly 60% of enterprises plan to resume work 10 - 15 days after the festival. There will be few new projects after the festival, and the market will still be dominated by ongoing projects. Downstream enterprises are relatively rational about the market performance after the festival. 66.67% of enterprises expect the steel price to remain stable after the festival, 21.57% are bearish, and only 11.76% think the price will rise compared with before the festival [1] Trading Strategy - Short-term oscillation. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the resistance level is 3,200 [1]