铁合金2月报：低估值有修复需求，价格震荡偏强-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese markets are characterized by weak supply and demand, but there are expectations of marginal improvement in the future. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have low valuation levels, and their prices are expected to be volatile and strong in February [2][80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Ferrosilicon: The supply side remains at a low level, and after the release of the differential electricity price document in Shaanxi, local enterprises have a demand for technological transformation, so there is still an expectation of supply contraction. The demand side sees a recent improvement in steel profits, but steel inventories are starting to accumulate seasonally. It is expected that the molten iron production in February will first decline and then rise around the Spring Festival. The cost in the main production areas has stable electricity prices, and there is still an expectation of price increases in some areas. The current valuation level of ferrosilicon is low, and its price will be mainly volatile and strong in February [2][80]. - Ferromanganese: The output of enterprises within the sample continues to decline at a low level, but some new production capacities were put into operation in January, and the overall supply side is mainly stable. The demand side is similar to that of ferrosilicon. The cost side shows that the manganese ore port inventory is about 1 million tons lower than the average of the same period in previous years, the spot price is firm, and the offers of overseas mines in February have all increased slightly. The valuation level of ferromanganese is low, and it may be volatile and strong in February [2][80]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, the futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese fluctuated narrowly, first declining and then rising. The main reason is that the implementation plan of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi was announced, which led to an increase in costs for local ferrosilicon enterprises or a demand for phased technological transformation, driving up the futures prices. However, as steel demand entered the off - season, the fundamentals did not support the increase, and the prices adjusted later. After the prices corrected to the low - valuation range, they fluctuated upward again in late January driven by the overall commodity market sentiment [7]. 3.2.2 Current Weak Supply and Demand with Expectations of Improvement - Supply: According to Mysteel data, the output of ferromanganese (187 enterprises) in December was 843,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. It is expected that the output in January will increase slightly month - on - month. The output of ferrosilicon (136 enterprises) in December was 454,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in January. On the week of January 29, the national operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%; the daily average output was 98,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100 tons. The national operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 36.21%, remaining flat month - on - month; the daily average output was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 800 tons [27]. - Demand: The molten iron production fluctuated narrowly in January. On the week of January 29, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.2798 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1200 tons. Looking forward to February, steel profits have rebounded recently, and short - term production remains stable, but inventories are starting to accumulate seasonally. It is expected that there will be seasonal production cuts before the Spring Festival. Judging from the steel mill blast furnace maintenance plans, it is expected that the molten iron production will first decline and then rise around the Spring Festival [27]. 3.2.3 Stable Ferrosilicon Inventory and Eased Accumulation Pressure of Ferromanganese - Alloy Factory Inventory: On the week of January 29, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons; the inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 373,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons. Generally, the ferrosilicon inventory is relatively normal, while the ferromanganese inventory is high, but the continuous inventory accumulation situation has eased [45]. - Downstream Inventory: Steel profits have slightly recovered recently, and steel mills still have a phased demand for replenishing inventory at the beginning of February approaching the Spring Festival. However, due to the still low absolute value of steel profits, the replenishment intensity is expected to be limited, and steel mills will generally continue the idea of low raw material inventory [45]. 3.2.4 Support from Electricity Prices and Manganese Ore - Electricity Prices: In January, the electricity prices in the main production areas were mainly stable and slightly weak. After the release of the differential electricity price document in Shaanxi, there is also an expectation of price increases in Inner Mongolia. Overall, electricity prices still provide obvious support for alloy costs [54]. - Manganese Ore: The overall manganese ore port inventory is about 4.22 million tons, about 1 million tons lower than the average of the same period in previous years. Supported by the low inventory, the port spot prices are generally firm. In January, the price of Australian lumps in Tianjin Port remained stable, the semi - carbonate increased by 1 yuan/ton - degree, and the Gabonese lumps increased by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree. The strong operation of manganese ore provides strong support for the cost side of ferromanganese [54]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Outlook: Similar to the market outlook, the fundamentals of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are currently characterized by weak supply and demand, but there are expectations of marginal improvement in the future, and both have low valuation levels, with prices expected to be volatile and strong in February [80]. - Strategy Recommendations - Single - side: Supply and demand are both weak, but cost support is strong, and the valuation level is low. Prices are expected to be volatile and strong [3]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - Options: Sell put options on rallies [3].