双焦2月报：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大-20260130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading mainline of coking coal and coke is unclear recently, with lackluster fundamentals and frequent disturbances from funds. The weight of fundamentals has decreased, and the influence of funds and sentiment is significant. From a valuation perspective, the current valuation of coking coal is not high. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying approach, but not to be overly optimistic about the upside potential [3][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In January, the coking coal and coke futures showed wide - range oscillations with no obvious trend. Coking coal futures rose in the first ten - day period, declined in the middle ten - day period, and oscillated in the last ten - day period. The rise in January was mainly due to the downstream winter storage replenishment expectation. In the middle ten - day period, the resumption of high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance and sufficient domestic supply led to a lack of post - holiday expectations in the market, causing the futures price to decline first. Coke had no independent market and fluctuated following coking coal [2][9]. - In the spot market, the price of Mongolian coal was closely related to the futures, rising and falling in line with the futures. Shanxi coking coal prices were relatively lagging. They stopped falling and stabilized in the first ten - day period, and generally rose in the middle ten - day period, with mainstream coal types rising by 80 - 150 yuan/ton. However, in the last ten - day period, the coking coal in the producing areas showed signs of weakness [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Coal Production - In 2025, the national raw coal output of above - scale industries was 4.83 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The national coking clean coal output was 47.952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, among which the coking clean coal output in Shanxi was 22.027 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [39]. - In January, coking coal production slowly recovered. In February, coal mines gradually went on holiday. The average holiday days of sample coal mines were 10.1 days, similar to last year. State - owned coal mines had an average of 6.2 days of holiday, while private coal mines had an average of 13.96 days. After the Spring Festival, coal mines are expected to resume normal production, with relatively balanced supply and demand [40]. 3.2.2 Coal Imports - In 2025, China imported 118.63 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 3.24 million tons, a decline of 2.7%. The imports from Mongolia, Russia, Canada, the United States, and Australia accounted for 50.6%, 27.6%, 9.1%, 2.5%, and 7.5% respectively. The combined imports from Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.3% [51]. - In January, the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal quickly rebounded to a high level, with a significant year - on - year increase, which put great pressure on coking coal prices. During the Spring Festival, the Mongolian coal ports were closed. It is expected that the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal will remain at a high level after the Spring Festival [64]. 3.2.3 Coke Exports - In 2025, China's total coke exports were 7.941 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 377,000 tons, a decline of 4.5%. The main export destinations were Indonesia, India, Japan, Brazil, Vietnam, and Malaysia. India imposed anti - dumping duties on low - ash metallurgical coke from China and other countries. However, due to the already low base of China's coke exports to India, the marginal impact of the anti - dumping duties is limited. It is expected that coke exports in 2026 will remain basically the same [72][74][75]. 3.2.4 Coke Supply and Demand - In January, the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises increased slightly, and the supply and demand of coke were in a tight balance. Due to the rise in coking coal prices in January and the relatively lagging coke prices, the first round of price increases had not been fully implemented, and the profits of coke enterprises generally shrank [79]. 3.2.5 Steel Production and Demand - In January, the molten iron output of steel mills increased slightly and then oscillated, remaining at a relatively low level. The profitability of steel mills was poor. In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to increase slightly by 0.46%, and steel exports are expected to decline by about 3.8%, with the total demand for crude steel remaining basically the same [83]. 3.2.6 Winter Storage - As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage replenishment of coking coal is basically coming to an end. Downstream procurement has slowed down, and downstream coking and steel enterprises have a general intensity for winter storage replenishment. During the Spring Festival, coal mines are on holiday, and downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory [93]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Market Outlook: The trading mainline of coking coal and coke is unclear, with lackluster fundamentals. In February, coal mines go on holiday, spot trading becomes quiet, and prices tend to be stable. The weight of fundamentals decreases, and the influence of funds and sentiment increases. The current valuation of coking coal is not high, and attention should be paid to the switching of funds [113]. - Strategy Recommendations: - Unilateral: The market is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying approach, but not to be overly optimistic about the upside potential [4][114]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4][114]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [4][115].