碳酸锂：延续区间震荡，聚焦供需边际，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market will undergo range - bound consolidation, with a focus on marginal supply and demand changes [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures oscillated within a range, closing at 164,820 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 245 tons to 30,211 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 168,000 yuan/ton. The market sentiment showed obvious game characteristics, and the market transactions were divided. Upstream scattered orders' quotes shrank, and the willingness to ship became more cautious. Downstream material factories increased scattered order purchases at relatively low prices due to rigid demand and February stocking [1] 3.2 Supply Side - Last week, the raw material market was divided. Overseas lithium spodumene remained stable with a slight increase, while domestic spot lithium ore prices declined. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%), and the operating rates of all processes except for salt lakes decreased. The total SMM output was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [2] 3.3 Demand Side - There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. This week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.0% month - on - month, and inventory accumulation increased. The output of ternary materials decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, and inventory gradually decreased. Last week, the output of power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in SMM rose to 55.6%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, with low inventory, and the production schedule increased slightly, supporting demand [2] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of SMM's four - location samples increased by 2% (+860 tons) month - on - month. This week, the weekly sample inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days were 28.5 days. The inventory days of downstream increased to 10.8 days, while the inventory days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant inventory structure differentiation [2] 3.5 Macro Policy - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as subsidies for automobile trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term and raise the cost support center. Industrial plans, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference, form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]