航运衍生品数据日报-20260130

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The EC spot and futures markets are in a game situation intertwined with policies and geopolitical factors, showing a differentiation feature of short - term sentiment - driven and long - term fundamental support. The market has not formed a clear trend yet, with short - term being dominated by policy news and sentiment, and long - term depending on global foreign trade recovery rhythm, capacity adjustment and substantial improvement of terminal demand. [8] - The current market core logic revolves around three variables: short - term rush - shipping expectations due to PV export tax - rebate policy adjustment, Red Sea resumption expectations due to geopolitical easing, and the differentiated recovery of the euro - zone economy. [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1458, down 7.39% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1209, down 0.09%. SCFI - US West is down 5.01%, SCFIS - US West is down 0.84%, SCFI - US East is down 8.44%, SCFI - Northwest Europe is down 4.83%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is down 4.86%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is down 7.61%. [5] - Shipping Schedule: For the European line FAL1, the last east - bound return ship through Suez is CMA CGM BENJAMIN FRANKLIN, expected to pass on February 1, and then resume on April 6. For FAL3, the last east - bound return ship through Suez is CMA CGM SEINE, expected to pass on January 25. For the Mediterranean line MEX, the last east - bound return ship through Suez is CMA CGM GRACE BAY, expected to pass on January 22. There are no resumption plans for FAL3 and MEX currently. [5][6] 3.2 Market Conditions - Overall Trend: The market shows a volatile and slightly strong trend. [7] - Spot Prices: For the European line 40 - foot container freight, different alliances have different quotes. In the future one or two weeks (late January - early February), most quotes are expected to decline before the Spring Festival due to the low - cargo period. [7] 3.3 Market Analysis - Futures Market: Driven by short - term sentiment, it strengthened overall at first, then corrected due to weakened spot support and calmed sentiment. The far - month contracts are more resilient. [8] - Spot Market: It is in a balance state of shipping companies' quotation adjustment and supply - demand game. Some shipping companies lower short - term quotes to compete for cargo volume, but potential rush - shipping demand provides implicit support. [8] 3.4 Strategy - The cost - performance of short - selling in the short - term decreases. Pay attention to going long on the 06 contract at low positions and short - selling the off - season 10 contract on rebounds. [9]