工业硅、多晶硅日报（2026年1月30日）-20260130

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On January 29, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,925 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.36%, and open interest increasing by 970 lots to 237,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,628 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium to a discount of 75 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 49,335 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 4.22%, and open interest increasing by 1,330 lots to 42,745 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material from Baichuan dropped to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 3,165 yuan/ton. [2] - In Sichuan, all furnaces have stopped operating. In Yunnan, low - load operation is maintained due to long - term contracts, and production cuts are also expected in the future. Large factories in Xinjiang plan to cut production by 50% by the end of the month. With the expected reduction in supply, the futures market is gradually recovering, and the supply of high - and low - grade products is diverging. The scale of production cuts by silicon material manufacturers continues to expand. The rush to export before the export tax - rebate window will advance demand, and the high inventory in the industry will dilute the intensity of restocking. In terms of rhythm, spot quotes are gradually losing support, with the near - term futures having support and the far - term futures under pressure. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon Futures: The settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,760 yuan/ton on January 28 to 8,925 yuan/ton on January 29, a rise of 165 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - term contract increased from 8,670 yuan/ton to 8,835 yuan/ton, a rise of 165 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different grades and regions remained stable. The lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from a premium of 90 yuan/ton to a discount of 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton. [2][4] - Polysilicon Futures: The settlement price of the main contract decreased from 50,805 yuan/ton on January 28 to 49,335 yuan/ton on January 29, a drop of 1,470 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - term contract decreased from 50,220 yuan/ton to 48,445 yuan/ton, a drop of 1,775 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable. The lowest deliverable product price was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened from 1,695 yuan/ton to 3,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,470 yuan/ton. [2][4] - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton. Among the organic silicon products, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 14,500 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,000 yuan/ton. [4] - Inventory: For industrial silicon, the daily warehouse receipts increased by 384 to 13,655, the weekly inventory at GFE increased by 8,440 to 64,855 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 1,000 to 453,950 tons. For polysilicon, the daily warehouse receipts increased by 770 to 8,090, the weekly inventory at GFE increased by 69,000 tons to 205,500 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 9,000 tons to 330,000 tons. [4] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [6][9][12] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [15][17][18] 3.3 Inventory - The charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory of industrial silicon, and the weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and DMC. [20][21][24] 3.4 Cost - Profit - The charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of aluminum alloys. [25][27][29]